FC Ingolstadt 04 1–2 Hamburger SV: Result & Stats

FC Ingolstadt 04

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Hamburger SV

F. Kaya 54'

Hwang Hee-Chan 51'

A. Hunt 28'

12/1/2018

2. Bundesliga · Round 15Audi Sportpark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

FC Ingolstadt 0431%

×Draw24%

Hamburger SV44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC Ingolstadt 04Expected goals in this matchHamburger SV

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.61

FC Ingolstadt 04

1.32

Hamburger SV

1.61

Hamburger SV creates 22% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 109 away

1.21

creates per match

1.80

1.42

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

FC Ingolstadt 04

1.21

Hamburger SV

1.80

allows per match

FC Ingolstadt 04

1.42

Hamburger SV

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Ingolstadt 04+0.00on par

Hamburger SV+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Ingolstadt 04 ↓

Hamburger SV →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

FC Ingolstadt 04 or draw

56%

FC Ingolstadt 04 or Hamburger SV

76%

Draw or Hamburger SV

69%

Winning margin

FC Ingolstadt 04 wins by 2+

14%

Hamburger SV wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

FC Ingolstadt 04 1+ goals

73%

FC Ingolstadt 04 2+ goals

38%

FC Ingolstadt 04 3+ goals

15%

Hamburger SV 1+ goals

80%

Hamburger SV 2+ goals

48%

Hamburger SV 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

FC Ingolstadt 04 (draw refunded)

42%

Hamburger SV (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Ingolstadt 04 at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.42 · 62 matches

Hamburger SV away — creates 1.80, concedes 1.43 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Ingolstadt 04 attack 1.21 + Hamburger SV defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.32

Hamburger SV attack 1.80 + FC Ingolstadt 04 defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

FC Ingolstadt 04 scores more

31%

level

24%

Hamburger SV scores more

44%

Hamburger SV at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Hamburger SV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

Hwang Hee-Chan

Hamburger SV · F

7.7

Match Events

18'

Stefan Kutschke

28'

A. Hunt

34'

Lewis Holtby

46'

T. Röcher← S. Kutschke

51'

Hwang Hee-Chan↳ L. Holtby

54'

55'

63'

66'

68'

V. Janjičić← L. Holtby

73'

Khaled Narey

76'

Vasilije Janjičić

78'

Jonatan Kotzke

83'

K. Kerschbaumer← G. Pintidis

85'

J. Arp← K. Narey

90'

Sonny Kittel

90+1'

L. Lacroix← Hwang Hee-Chan

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FCHamburger

Overview

39%Possession61%

16Total Shots16

4Corners6

18Fouls20

Shots

16Total Shots16

5On Target3

3Off Target8

8Blocked5

10Inside Box7

6Outside Box9

Passing

39%Possession61%

235Total Passes375

138Accurate Passes293

59%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

18Fouls20

5Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards0

1Offsides4