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FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Hamburger SV — Bundesliga 2026

FC Ingolstadt 04
FC Ingolstadt 04
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Hamburger SV
Hamburger SV
A. Cohen 47' (pen)
M. Suttner 22'
P. Groß 14'
G. Sakai 63'
1/28/2017BundesligaBundesliga · Round 18Audi Sportpark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

FC Ingolstadt 0455%
×Draw23%
Hamburger SV22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Ingolstadt 04
1.84
Hamburger SV
1.08

FC Ingolstadt 04 creates 70% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 53 away

creates per match

FC Ingolstadt 04
1.60
Hamburger SV
0.77

allows per match

FC Ingolstadt 04
1.40
Hamburger SV
2.08

finishing

FC Ingolstadt 04+0.00on par
Hamburger SV+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Ingolstadt 04 ↓

Hamburger SV →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

FC Ingolstadt 04 or draw
78%
FC Ingolstadt 04 or Hamburger SV
77%
Draw or Hamburger SV
45%

Winning margin

FC Ingolstadt 04 wins by 2+
31%
Hamburger SV wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

FC Ingolstadt 04 1+ goals
84%
FC Ingolstadt 04 2+ goals
55%
FC Ingolstadt 04 3+ goals
28%
Hamburger SV 1+ goals
66%
Hamburger SV 2+ goals
29%
Hamburger SV 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

FC Ingolstadt 04 (draw refunded)
71%
Hamburger SV (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Ingolstadt 04 at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.40 · 10 matches

Hamburger SV away — creates 0.77, concedes 2.08 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Ingolstadt 04 attack 1.60 + Hamburger SV defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.84

Hamburger SV attack 0.77 + FC Ingolstadt 04 defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

FC Ingolstadt 04 scores more
55%
level
23%
Hamburger SV scores more
22%

FC Ingolstadt 04 at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "FC Ingolstadt 04 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

29
M. SuttnerFC Ingolstadt 04FC Ingolstadt 04 · D
7.8

Match Events

14'
P. Groß↳ M. Leckie
22'
M. Suttner
43'
A. Jung← M. Leckie
44'
Kyriakos Papadopoulos
46'
D. Diekmeier← L. Waldschmidt
46'
G. Jung← M. Ostrzolek
47'
A. CohenPenalty
63'
G. Sakai
68'
N. Müller← M. Gregoritsch
77'
Gotoku Sakai
87'
L. Hinterseer← D. Lezcano
90+2'
T. Levels← P. Groß

Possession

45%FC

Shots

15FC

Pass accuracy

44%FC

Statistics

FCHamburger
Overview
45%Possession55%
15Total Shots11
1Corners6
13Fouls18
Shots
15Total Shots11
7On Target3
4Off Target6
4Blocked2
7Inside Box6
8Outside Box5
Passing
45%Possession55%
367Total Passes429
181Accurate Passes267
49%Pass Accuracy62%
Goalkeeping
2Saves4
Discipline
13Fouls18
0Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards0
1Offsides0

Match Recap: FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Hamburger SV

FC Ingolstadt 04 beat Hamburger SV 3-1 in Bundesliga on January 28, 2017.

Goals: P. Groß (14'), M. Suttner (22'), A. Cohen (47' pen), G. Sakai (63').

Hamburger SV controlled possession (55%) and registered 11 shots to 15.

The match was played at Audi Sportpark in Ingolstadt.