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FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Hamburger SV — 2. Bundesliga 2018

FC Ingolstadt 04
FC Ingolstadt 04
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Hamburger SV
Hamburger SV
M. Kaufmann 81'
R. Glatzel 57'
S. Schonlau 29'
S. Kittel 27'
4/30/20222. Bundesliga2. Bundesliga · Round 32Audi-Sportpark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

FC Ingolstadt 0431%
×Draw24%
Hamburger SV44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Ingolstadt 04
1.32
Hamburger SV
1.61

Hamburger SV creates 22% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 109 away

creates per match

FC Ingolstadt 04
1.21
Hamburger SV
1.80

allows per match

FC Ingolstadt 04
1.42
Hamburger SV
1.43

finishing

FC Ingolstadt 04+0.00on par
Hamburger SV+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Ingolstadt 04 ↓

Hamburger SV →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

FC Ingolstadt 04 or draw
56%
FC Ingolstadt 04 or Hamburger SV
76%
Draw or Hamburger SV
69%

Winning margin

FC Ingolstadt 04 wins by 2+
14%
Hamburger SV wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

FC Ingolstadt 04 1+ goals
73%
FC Ingolstadt 04 2+ goals
38%
FC Ingolstadt 04 3+ goals
15%
Hamburger SV 1+ goals
80%
Hamburger SV 2+ goals
48%
Hamburger SV 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

FC Ingolstadt 04 (draw refunded)
42%
Hamburger SV (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Ingolstadt 04 at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.42 · 62 matches

Hamburger SV away — creates 1.80, concedes 1.43 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Ingolstadt 04 attack 1.21 + Hamburger SV defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.32

Hamburger SV attack 1.80 + FC Ingolstadt 04 defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

FC Ingolstadt 04 scores more
31%
level
24%
Hamburger SV scores more
44%

Hamburger SV at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Hamburger SV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
S. KittelHamburger SVHamburger SV · F
8.9

Match Events

21'
Sebastian Schonlau
27'
S. Kittel
29'
S. Schonlau↳ M. Muheim
46'
T. Keller← V. Musliu
46'
J. Vagnoman← B. Jatta
57'
R. Glatzel↳ S. Kittel
66'
M. Kaufmann← R. Glatzel
66'
M. Wintzheimer← A. Suhonen
68'
Florian Pick
74'
V. Sulejmani← P. Schmidt
74'
A. Poulsen← M. Gaus
77'
J. David← J. Meffert
81'
M. Kaufmann↳ J. Vagnoman
82'
F. Alidou← L. Reis
85'
Miro Muheim
87'
A. Llugiqi← F. Pick
87'
J. Kotzke← R. Preißinger

Possession

28%FC

Shots

8FC

Pass accuracy

43%FC

Statistics

FCHamburger
Overview
28%Possession72%
8Total Shots20
0Corners9
10Fouls10
Shots
8Total Shots20
3On Target8
4Off Target8
1Blocked4
7Inside Box10
1Outside Box10
Passing
28%Possession72%
262Total Passes673
179Accurate Passes608
68%Pass Accuracy90%
Goalkeeping
3Saves3
Discipline
10Fouls10
1Yellow Cards2
0Offsides3

2. Bundesliga: FC Ingolstadt 04 0–4 Hamburger SV

Hamburger SV beat FC Ingolstadt 04 4-0 in 2. Bundesliga on April 30, 2022.

Goals: S. Kittel (27'), S. Schonlau (29'), R. Glatzel (57'), M. Kaufmann (81').

Hamburger SV controlled possession (72%) and registered 20 shots to 8.

The match was played at Audi-Sportpark in Ingolstadt.