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Ham-Kam vs Tromso — Eliteserien 2026

Ham-Kam
Ham-Kam
Preview
12:00
Tromso
Tromso
7/18/2026EliteserienEliteserien · Round 14Briskeby Arena
Big match
40%
Ham-Kam
model favours
40%25%35%

Ham-Kam are unbeaten in 5 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
54%
over 2.5 goals
58%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Ham-Kam40%
×Draw25%
Tromso35%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ham-Kam
1.48
Tromso
1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

creates per match

Ham-Kam
1.43
Tromso
1.11

allows per match

Ham-Kam
1.65
Tromso
1.54

finishing

Ham-Kam+0.37scores more
Tromso-0.91scores less

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ham-Kam ↓

Tromso →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Ham-Kam or draw
65%
Ham-Kam or Tromso
75%
Draw or Tromso
60%

Winning margin

Ham-Kam wins by 2+
19%
Tromso wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Ham-Kam 1+ goals
77%
Ham-Kam 2+ goals
43%
Ham-Kam 3+ goals
19%
Tromso 1+ goals
75%
Tromso 2+ goals
40%
Tromso 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Ham-Kam (draw refunded)
53%
Tromso (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ham-Kam at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.65 · 5 matches

Tromso away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.54 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ham-Kam attack 1.43 + Tromso defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.48

Tromso attack 1.11 + Ham-Kam defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Ham-Kam scores more
40%
level
25%
Tromso scores more
35%

Ham-Kam at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Ham-Kam will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in 85% of Ham-Kam’s matches
  • Ham-Kam have scored in 7 games running
  • Tromso win just 40% against the top half (vs 87% against the bottom)
  • Style contrast — Ham-Kam play Direct / counter-attacking, Tromso Defensively solid
  • 21% of Ham-Kam’s goals come in the first 15 minutes

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Ham-Kam
Direct / counter-attacking
Tromso
Defensively solid
44%Possession46%
77%Pass accuracy82%
13.2Shots11.9
1.43xGBiggest gap1.28
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Ham-KamTromso

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

0
Ham-Kam
2
Draws
3
Tromso
Avg goals: 2.6BTTS: 40%
0–11–30–23–30–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Ham-Kam
DWDDW
Tromso
WWDDL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ham-Kam face Tromso (Eliteserien)

Eliteserien returns with Ham-Kam hosting Tromso. Match starts July 18, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Ham-Kam host Tromso at Briskeby Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.