Ham-Kam 1–2 ODD Ballklubb: Result & Stats

Ham-Kam

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

ODD Ballklubb

V. Kongsro 46'

T. Lauritsen 28'

M. Jevtović 24' (pen)

5/28/2022

Eliteserien · Round 9Briskeby Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 18+ matches

Ham-Kam48%

×Draw23%

ODD Ballklubb29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ham-KamExpected goals in this matchODD Ballklubb

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.32

Ham-Kam

1.77

ODD Ballklubb

1.32

Ham-Kam creates 34% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 18 away

1.32

creates per match

0.98

1.67

allows per match

2.22

creates per match

Ham-Kam

1.32

ODD Ballklubb

0.98

allows per match

Ham-Kam

1.67

ODD Ballklubb

2.22

+0.47scores more than expected

finishing

+0.19scores more than expected

finishing

Ham-Kam+0.47scores more

ODD Ballklubb+0.19scores more

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ham-Kam ↓

ODD Ballklubb →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Ham-Kam or draw

71%

Ham-Kam or ODD Ballklubb

77%

Draw or ODD Ballklubb

52%

Winning margin

Ham-Kam wins by 2+

26%

ODD Ballklubb wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Ham-Kam 1+ goals

83%

Ham-Kam 2+ goals

53%

Ham-Kam 3+ goals

26%

ODD Ballklubb 1+ goals

73%

ODD Ballklubb 2+ goals

38%

ODD Ballklubb 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Ham-Kam (draw refunded)

63%

ODD Ballklubb (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ham-Kam at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.67 · 34 matches

ODD Ballklubb away — creates 0.98, concedes 2.22 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ham-Kam attack 1.32 + ODD Ballklubb defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 1.77

ODD Ballklubb attack 0.98 + Ham-Kam defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Ham-Kam scores more

48%

level

23%

ODD Ballklubb scores more

29%

Ham-Kam at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Ham-Kam will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

O. Bjørtuft

ODD Ballklubb · D

7.7

Match Events

23'

Fredrik Sjolstad

24'

M. JevtovićPenalty

28'

T. Lauritsen↳ O. Bjørtuft

43'

Fredrik Sjolstad

43'

Fredrik Sjolstad

46'

K. Onsrud← P. Kirkevold

46'

V. Kongsro↳ K. Eriksen

58'

Conrad Wallem

59'

F. Jørgensen← M. Ingebrigtsen

61'

Milan Jevtović

73'

E. Dašķevičs← E. Sildnes

82'

A. Nouri← V. Kongsro

82'

Y. Yakovenko← H. Rødølen

85'

S. Aas← M. Jevtović

88'

Solomon Owusu

90+1'

F. Faerrón← H. Kuruçay

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Ham-KamODD

Overview

37%Possession63%

8Total Shots9

3Corners9

9Fouls9

Shots

8Total Shots9

1On Target2

3Off Target4

4Blocked3

7Inside Box7

1Outside Box2

Passing

37%Possession63%

297Total Passes514

202Accurate Passes429

68%Pass Accuracy83%

Discipline

9Fouls9

2Yellow Cards3

1Red Cards0

1Offsides3

Eliteserien: Ham-Kam 1–2 ODD Ballklubb

ODD Ballklubb beat Ham-Kam 2-1 in Eliteserien on May 28, 2022.

Goals: M. Jevtović (24' pen), T. Lauritsen (28'), V. Kongsro (46').

ODD Ballklubb controlled possession (63%) and registered 9 shots to 8.

The match was played at Briskeby Arena in Hamar.

Ham-Kam vs ODD Ballklubb — Eliteserien 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Eliteserien: Ham-Kam 1–2 ODD Ballklubb