Hallescher FC U19 2–1 Chemnitzer FC U19

Hallescher FC U19

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Chemnitzer FC U19

L. Hein 90+2'

E. Stobbe 37'

P. Sauer 20'

10/26/2024

U19 Bundesliga · 1st Group Stage - 10NLZ HFC Platz 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Hallescher FC U1952%

×Draw20%

Chemnitzer FC U1928%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hallescher FC U19Expected goals in this matchChemnitzer FC U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.34

1.69

Hallescher FC U19

2.34

Chemnitzer FC U19

1.69

Hallescher FC U19 creates 38% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 52 away

1.89

creates per match

1.38

2.00

allows per match

2.79

creates per match

Hallescher FC U19

1.89

Chemnitzer FC U19

1.38

allows per match

Hallescher FC U19

2.00

Chemnitzer FC U19

2.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hallescher FC U19+0.00on par

Chemnitzer FC U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes74
No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hallescher FC U19 ↓

Chemnitzer FC U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

57%43%4.5

37%63%

Double chance

Hallescher FC U19 or draw

72%

Hallescher FC U19 or Chemnitzer FC U19

80%

Draw or Chemnitzer FC U19

48%

Winning margin

Hallescher FC U19 wins by 2+

32%

Chemnitzer FC U19 wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Hallescher FC U19 1+ goals

90%

Hallescher FC U19 2+ goals

67%

Hallescher FC U19 3+ goals

41%

Chemnitzer FC U19 1+ goals

82%

Chemnitzer FC U19 2+ goals

50%

Chemnitzer FC U19 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Hallescher FC U19 (draw refunded)

65%

Chemnitzer FC U19 (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

66%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hallescher FC U19 at home — creates 1.89, concedes 2.00 · 37 matches

Chemnitzer FC U19 away — creates 1.38, concedes 2.79 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hallescher FC U19 attack 1.89 + Chemnitzer FC U19 defence 2.79 → ÷2 → 2.34

Chemnitzer FC U19 attack 1.38 + Hallescher FC U19 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Hallescher FC U19 scores more

52%

level

20%

Chemnitzer FC U19 scores more

28%

Hallescher FC U19 at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Hallescher FC U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'

P. Sauer

37'

E. Stobbe

56'

A. Hiecke← K. Mauersberger

56'

A. Zamora← N. Tänzer

66'

D. Bartholome← D. Zürn

66'

L. Hein← Mohamed Samadi

72'

G. Hempel← A. Mensah

72'

M. Lenz← T. Taubert

78'

F. Kunstmann← P. Sauer

80'

J. Gore← N. Hüttig

80'

R. Trinko← B. Serifoski

90+2'

L. Hein

Hallescher

Chemnitzer

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: T. Donath

66'▲D. Bartholome←▼D. Zürn

66'▲L. Hein←▼Mohamed Samadi

80'▲J. Gore←▼N. Hüttig

80'▲R. Trinko←▼B. Serifoski

Hallescher FC U19 substitutes

BartholomeHeinGoreTrinkoWagnerSchneiderPörschmann

Manager: T. Wappler

56'▲A. Hiecke←▼K. Mauersberger

56'▲A. Zamora←▼N. Tänzer

72'▲G. Hempel←▼A. Mensah

72'▲M. Lenz←▼T. Taubert

78'▲F. Kunstmann←▼P. Sauer

Chemnitzer FC U19 substitutes

HieckeZamoraHempelLenzKunstmannBoldtKlose

U19 Bundesliga: Hallescher FC U19 2–1 Chemnitzer FC U19

Hallescher FC U19 beat Chemnitzer FC U19 2-1 in U19 Bundesliga on October 26, 2024.

Goals: P. Sauer (20'), E. Stobbe (37'), L. Hein (90+2').

The match was played at NLZ HFC Platz 1 in Saale.

Hallescher FC U19 vs Chemnitzer FC U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: Hallescher FC U19 2–1 Chemnitzer FC U19