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Hallescher FC U19 vs Chemnitzer FC U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Hallescher FC U19
Hallescher FC U19
CANC
10:00
Chemnitzer FC U19
Chemnitzer FC U19
10/31/2020U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · Nord / Nordost - 5Nachwuchszentrum Sandanger

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Hallescher FC U1952%
×Draw20%
Chemnitzer FC U1928%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hallescher FC U19
2.34
Chemnitzer FC U19
1.69

Hallescher FC U19 creates 38% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 52 away

creates per match

Hallescher FC U19
1.89
Chemnitzer FC U19
1.38

allows per match

Hallescher FC U19
2.00
Chemnitzer FC U19
2.79

finishing

Hallescher FC U19+0.00on par
Chemnitzer FC U19+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hallescher FC U19 ↓

Chemnitzer FC U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
57%43%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Hallescher FC U19 or draw
72%
Hallescher FC U19 or Chemnitzer FC U19
80%
Draw or Chemnitzer FC U19
48%

Winning margin

Hallescher FC U19 wins by 2+
32%
Chemnitzer FC U19 wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Hallescher FC U19 1+ goals
90%
Hallescher FC U19 2+ goals
67%
Hallescher FC U19 3+ goals
41%
Chemnitzer FC U19 1+ goals
82%
Chemnitzer FC U19 2+ goals
50%
Chemnitzer FC U19 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Hallescher FC U19 (draw refunded)
65%
Chemnitzer FC U19 (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hallescher FC U19 at home — creates 1.89, concedes 2.00 · 37 matches

Chemnitzer FC U19 away — creates 1.38, concedes 2.79 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hallescher FC U19 attack 1.89 + Chemnitzer FC U19 defence 2.79 → ÷2 → 2.34

Chemnitzer FC U19 attack 1.38 + Hallescher FC U19 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Hallescher FC U19 scores more
52%
level
20%
Chemnitzer FC U19 scores more
28%

Hallescher FC U19 at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Hallescher FC U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Hallescher FC U19 host Chemnitzer FC U19

October 31, 2020: Hallescher FC U19 take on Chemnitzer FC U19 in U19 Bundesliga. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Hallescher FC U19 host Chemnitzer FC U19 at Nachwuchszentrum Sandanger.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.