Hallescher FC U19 1–1 Chemnitzer FC U19

Hallescher FC U19

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Chemnitzer FC U19

L. Halangk 35'

P. Scheunert 85'

12/4/2021

U19 Bundesliga · Nord / Nordost - 12Nachwuchszentrum Sandanger

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Hallescher FC U1951%

×Draw20%

Chemnitzer FC U1929%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hallescher FC U19Expected goals in this matchChemnitzer FC U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.32

1.71

Hallescher FC U19

2.32

Chemnitzer FC U19

1.71

Hallescher FC U19 creates 36% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 51 away

1.89

creates per match

1.41

2.00

allows per match

2.75

creates per match

Hallescher FC U19

1.89

Chemnitzer FC U19

1.41

allows per match

Hallescher FC U19

2.00

Chemnitzer FC U19

2.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hallescher FC U19+0.00on par

Chemnitzer FC U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes74
No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hallescher FC U19 ↓

Chemnitzer FC U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

57%43%4.5

37%63%

Double chance

Hallescher FC U19 or draw

71%

Hallescher FC U19 or Chemnitzer FC U19

80%

Draw or Chemnitzer FC U19

49%

Winning margin

Hallescher FC U19 wins by 2+

31%

Chemnitzer FC U19 wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Hallescher FC U19 1+ goals

90%

Hallescher FC U19 2+ goals

67%

Hallescher FC U19 3+ goals

40%

Chemnitzer FC U19 1+ goals

82%

Chemnitzer FC U19 2+ goals

51%

Chemnitzer FC U19 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Hallescher FC U19 (draw refunded)

64%

Chemnitzer FC U19 (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

67%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hallescher FC U19 at home — creates 1.89, concedes 2.00 · 37 matches

Chemnitzer FC U19 away — creates 1.41, concedes 2.75 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hallescher FC U19 attack 1.89 + Chemnitzer FC U19 defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.32

Chemnitzer FC U19 attack 1.41 + Hallescher FC U19 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Hallescher FC U19 scores more

51%

level

20%

Chemnitzer FC U19 scores more

29%

Hallescher FC U19 at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Hallescher FC U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

35'

L. Halangk

46'

M. Schreiber← J. Jusić

59'

Y. Luib← T. Seidel

65'

A. Rühlemann← L. Vujanic

70'

S. Selishta← P. Kämpfer

84'

M. Sultani← L. Halangk

85'

P. Scheunert

90+2'

R. Frömmel← M. Schreiber

Hallescher

Chemnitzer

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: M. Buszkowiak

65'▲A. Rühlemann←▼L. Vujanic

84'▲M. Sultani←▼L. Halangk

Hallescher FC U19 substitutes

RühlemannSultaniSothenNeckeLippoldtLinseSebastian

Manager: J. Stephan

46'▲M. Schreiber←▼J. Jusić

59'▲Y. Luib←▼T. Seidel

70'▲S. Selishta←▼P. Kämpfer

90+2'▲R. Frömmel←▼M. Schreiber

Chemnitzer FC U19 substitutes

SchreiberLuibSelishtaFrömmelDorfsWolterVerhülsdonk

Match Recap: Hallescher FC U19 vs Chemnitzer FC U19

Hallescher FC U19 and Chemnitzer FC U19 drew 1-1 in U19 Bundesliga on December 4, 2021.

Goals: L. Halangk (35'), P. Scheunert (85').

The match was played at Nachwuchszentrum Sandanger in Saale.

Hallescher FC U19 vs Chemnitzer FC U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Hallescher FC U19 vs Chemnitzer FC U19