Chemnitzer FC U19 3–0 Hallescher FC U19

Chemnitzer FC U19

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Hallescher FC U19

T. Taubert 90+2'

K. Mauersberger 44'

N. Künzel 30'

8/14/2024

U19 Bundesliga · 1st Group Stage - 3Stadion im Sportforum Chemnitz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Chemnitzer FC U1944%

×Draw22%

Hallescher FC U1934%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chemnitzer FC U19Expected goals in this matchHallescher FC U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.97

1.71

Chemnitzer FC U19

1.97

Hallescher FC U19

1.71

Chemnitzer FC U19 creates 15% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 37 away

1.43

creates per match

1.24

2.17

allows per match

2.51

creates per match

Chemnitzer FC U19

1.43

Hallescher FC U19

1.24

allows per match

Chemnitzer FC U19

2.17

Hallescher FC U19

2.51

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chemnitzer FC U19+0.00on par

Hallescher FC U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chemnitzer FC U19 ↓

Hallescher FC U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Chemnitzer FC U19 or draw

66%

Chemnitzer FC U19 or Hallescher FC U19

78%

Draw or Hallescher FC U19

56%

Winning margin

Chemnitzer FC U19 wins by 2+

25%

Hallescher FC U19 wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Chemnitzer FC U19 1+ goals

86%

Chemnitzer FC U19 2+ goals

58%

Chemnitzer FC U19 3+ goals

31%

Hallescher FC U19 1+ goals

82%

Hallescher FC U19 2+ goals

51%

Hallescher FC U19 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Chemnitzer FC U19 (draw refunded)

57%

Hallescher FC U19 (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chemnitzer FC U19 at home — creates 1.43, concedes 2.17 · 54 matches

Hallescher FC U19 away — creates 1.24, concedes 2.51 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chemnitzer FC U19 attack 1.43 + Hallescher FC U19 defence 2.51 → ÷2 → 1.97

Hallescher FC U19 attack 1.24 + Chemnitzer FC U19 defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Chemnitzer FC U19 scores more

44%

level

22%

Hallescher FC U19 scores more

34%

Chemnitzer FC U19 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Chemnitzer FC U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'

44'

55'

55'

62'

62'

L. Brückner← G. Hempel

74'

O. Pörschmann← D. Bartholome

83'

J. Dolla← N. Hüttig

83'

M. Zansen← N. Langer

85'

B. Schmidt← K. Mauersberger

85'

T. Taubert← N. Künzel

88'

G. Tóth← A. Hiecke

88'

M. Lenz← N. Tänzer

90+2'

T. Taubert

Chemnitzer

Hallescher

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Künzel

Manager: T. Wappler

62'▲A. Zamora←▼A. Mensah

62'▲L. Brückner←▼G. Hempel

85'▲B. Schmidt←▼K. Mauersberger

85'▲T. Taubert←▼N. Künzel

88'▲G. Tóth←▼A. Hiecke

88'▲M. Lenz←▼N. Tänzer

Chemnitzer FC U19 substitutes

ZamoraBrücknerSchmidtTaubertTóthLenzWimmer

Manager: T. Donath

55'▲L. Hein←▼F. Selimi

55'▲J. Wagner←▼D. Zürn

74'▲O. Pörschmann←▼D. Bartholome

83'▲J. Dolla←▼N. Hüttig

83'▲M. Zansen←▼N. Langer

Hallescher FC U19 substitutes

HeinWagnerPörschmannDollaZansenSchlosserJahn

Match Recap: Chemnitzer FC U19 vs Hallescher FC U19

Chemnitzer FC U19 beat Hallescher FC U19 3-0 in U19 Bundesliga on August 14, 2024.

Goals: N. Künzel (30'), K. Mauersberger (44'), T. Taubert (90+2').

The match was played at Stadion im Sportforum Chemnitz in Chemnitz.

Chemnitzer FC U19 vs Hallescher FC U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Chemnitzer FC U19 vs Hallescher FC U19