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Guillermo Brown vs Alvarado — Torneo Federal A 2018

Guillermo Brown
Guillermo Brown
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Alvarado
Alvarado
5/31/2026Torneo Federal ATorneo Federal A · Round 11Estadio Raul Conti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Guillermo Brown41%
×Draw29%
Alvarado30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guillermo Brown
1.17
Alvarado
0.96

Guillermo Brown creates 22% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 25 away

creates per match

Guillermo Brown
1.33
Alvarado
0.92

allows per match

Guillermo Brown
1.00
Alvarado
1.00

finishing

Guillermo Brown+0.00on par
Alvarado+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guillermo Brown ↓

Alvarado →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Guillermo Brown or draw
70%
Guillermo Brown or Alvarado
71%
Draw or Alvarado
59%

Winning margin

Guillermo Brown wins by 2+
17%
Alvarado wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Guillermo Brown 1+ goals
69%
Guillermo Brown 2+ goals
33%
Guillermo Brown 3+ goals
11%
Alvarado 1+ goals
62%
Alvarado 2+ goals
25%
Alvarado 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Guillermo Brown (draw refunded)
58%
Alvarado (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guillermo Brown at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.00 · 24 matches

Alvarado away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.00 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guillermo Brown attack 1.33 + Alvarado defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.17

Alvarado attack 0.92 + Guillermo Brown defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Guillermo Brown scores more
41%
level
29%
Alvarado scores more
30%

Guillermo Brown at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Guillermo Brown will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Torneo Federal A: Guillermo Brown 0–0 Alvarado

Guillermo Brown and Alvarado drew 0-0 in Torneo Federal A on May 31, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio Raul Conti in Puerto Madryn.