Guillermo Brown 2–0 Alvarado: Result & Stats

Guillermo Brown

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Alvarado

10/6/2023

Primera Nacional · Group A - 37Estadio Raúl Conti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 99+ matches

Guillermo Brown45%

×Draw30%

Alvarado25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Guillermo BrownExpected goals in this matchAlvarado

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

0.82

Guillermo Brown

1.21

Alvarado

0.82

Guillermo Brown creates 48% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 101 away

1.01

creates per match

0.75

0.89

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Guillermo Brown

1.01

Alvarado

0.75

allows per match

Guillermo Brown

0.89

Alvarado

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Guillermo Brown+0.00on par

Alvarado+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guillermo Brown ↓

Alvarado →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Guillermo Brown or draw

75%

Guillermo Brown or Alvarado

70%

Draw or Alvarado

55%

Winning margin

Guillermo Brown wins by 2+

20%

Alvarado wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Guillermo Brown 1+ goals

70%

Guillermo Brown 2+ goals

34%

Guillermo Brown 3+ goals

12%

Alvarado 1+ goals

56%

Alvarado 2+ goals

20%

Alvarado 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Guillermo Brown (draw refunded)

64%

Alvarado (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guillermo Brown at home — creates 1.01, concedes 0.89 · 99 matches

Alvarado away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.41 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guillermo Brown attack 1.01 + Alvarado defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.21

Alvarado attack 0.75 + Guillermo Brown defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Guillermo Brown scores more

45%

level

30%

Alvarado scores more

25%

Guillermo Brown at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Guillermo Brown will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff