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Alvarado vs Guillermo Brown — Primera Nacional 2026

Alvarado
Alvarado
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Guillermo Brown
Guillermo Brown
2/11/2024Primera NacionalPrimera Nacional · Round 2Estadio José María Minella

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 99+ matches

Alvarado46%
×Draw31%
Guillermo Brown24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alvarado
1.17
Guillermo Brown
0.75

Alvarado creates 56% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 99 away

creates per match

Alvarado
1.06
Guillermo Brown
0.69

allows per match

Alvarado
0.81
Guillermo Brown
1.28

finishing

Alvarado+0.00on par
Guillermo Brown+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alvarado ↓

Guillermo Brown →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Alvarado or draw
76%
Alvarado or Guillermo Brown
69%
Draw or Guillermo Brown
54%

Winning margin

Alvarado wins by 2+
20%
Guillermo Brown wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Alvarado 1+ goals
69%
Alvarado 2+ goals
33%
Alvarado 3+ goals
11%
Guillermo Brown 1+ goals
53%
Guillermo Brown 2+ goals
17%
Guillermo Brown 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Alvarado (draw refunded)
66%
Guillermo Brown (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alvarado at home — creates 1.06, concedes 0.81 · 103 matches

Guillermo Brown away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.28 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alvarado attack 1.06 + Guillermo Brown defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.17

Guillermo Brown attack 0.69 + Alvarado defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Alvarado scores more
46%
level
31%
Guillermo Brown scores more
24%

Alvarado at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Alvarado will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Alvarado vs Guillermo Brown

Alvarado beat Guillermo Brown 2-1 in Primera Nacional on February 11, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio José María Minella in Mar del Plata, Provincia de Buenos Aires.