Alvarado 2–0 Guillermo Brown: Result & Stats

Alvarado

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Guillermo Brown

3/29/2026

Torneo Federal A · Round 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Alvarado61%

×Draw25%

Guillermo Brown15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AlvaradoExpected goals in this matchGuillermo Brown

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

0.65

Alvarado

1.61

Guillermo Brown

0.65

Alvarado creates 148% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 24 away

1.69

creates per match

0.83

0.46

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Alvarado

1.69

Guillermo Brown

0.83

allows per match

Alvarado

0.46

Guillermo Brown

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alvarado+0.00on par

Guillermo Brown+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alvarado ↓

Guillermo Brown →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–17%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Alvarado or draw

85%

Alvarado or Guillermo Brown

75%

Draw or Guillermo Brown

39%

Winning margin

Alvarado wins by 2+

33%

Guillermo Brown wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Alvarado 1+ goals

80%

Alvarado 2+ goals

48%

Alvarado 3+ goals

22%

Guillermo Brown 1+ goals

48%

Guillermo Brown 2+ goals

14%

Guillermo Brown 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Alvarado (draw refunded)

80%

Guillermo Brown (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alvarado at home — creates 1.69, concedes 0.46 · 26 matches

Guillermo Brown away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.54 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alvarado attack 1.69 + Guillermo Brown defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.61

Guillermo Brown attack 0.83 + Alvarado defence 0.46 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Alvarado scores more

61%

level

25%

Guillermo Brown scores more

15%

Alvarado at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Alvarado will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff