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Guarany de Bagé vs Brasil DE Pelotas — Serie D 2026

Guarany de Bagé
Guarany de Bagé
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Brasil DE Pelotas
Brasil DE Pelotas
Marcio Jonatan 78' (pen)
6/29/2025Serie DSerie D · 1st Phase - 10Estádio Antônio Magalhães Rossel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Guarany de Bagé38%
×Draw31%
Brasil DE Pelotas31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guarany de Bagé
1.07
Brasil DE Pelotas
0.93

Guarany de Bagé creates 15% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 29 away

creates per match

Guarany de Bagé
0.83
Brasil DE Pelotas
0.69

allows per match

Guarany de Bagé
1.17
Brasil DE Pelotas
1.31

finishing

Guarany de Bagé+0.00on par
Brasil DE Pelotas+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guarany de Bagé ↓

Brasil DE Pelotas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Guarany de Bagé or draw
69%
Guarany de Bagé or Brasil DE Pelotas
69%
Draw or Brasil DE Pelotas
62%

Winning margin

Guarany de Bagé wins by 2+
15%
Brasil DE Pelotas wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Guarany de Bagé 1+ goals
66%
Guarany de Bagé 2+ goals
29%
Guarany de Bagé 3+ goals
9%
Brasil DE Pelotas 1+ goals
61%
Brasil DE Pelotas 2+ goals
24%
Brasil DE Pelotas 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Guarany de Bagé (draw refunded)
55%
Brasil DE Pelotas (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guarany de Bagé at home — creates 0.83, concedes 1.17 · 12 matches

Brasil DE Pelotas away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.31 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guarany de Bagé attack 0.83 + Brasil DE Pelotas defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.07

Brasil DE Pelotas attack 0.69 + Guarany de Bagé defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Guarany de Bagé scores more
38%
level
31%
Brasil DE Pelotas scores more
31%

Guarany de Bagé at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Guarany de Bagé will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

78'
Marcio JonatanPenalty
Guarany
Brasil
Wiliam Campos
Manager: Wiliam Campos
Emerson Cris
Manager: Emerson Cris

Serie D: Guarany de Bagé 1–0 Brasil DE Pelotas

Guarany de Bagé beat Brasil DE Pelotas 1-0 in Serie D on June 29, 2025.

Goals: Marcio Jonatan (78' pen).

The match was played at Estádio Antônio Magalhães Rossel in Bagé, Rio Grande do Sul.