Brasil DE Pelotas 0–0 Guarany de Bagé

Brasil DE Pelotas

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Guarany de Bagé

1/25/2025

League #477 · 1st Phase - 2Estádio Bento da Silva Freitas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Brasil DE Pelotas49%

×Draw33%

Guarany de Bagé17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Brasil DE PelotasExpected goals in this matchGuarany de Bagé

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.08

0.51

Brasil DE Pelotas

1.08

Guarany de Bagé

0.51

Brasil DE Pelotas creates 112% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 4 away

0.91

creates per match

0.75

0.27

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Brasil DE Pelotas

0.91

Guarany de Bagé

0.75

allows per match

Brasil DE Pelotas

0.27

Guarany de Bagé

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Brasil DE Pelotas+0.00on par

Guarany de Bagé+0.00on par

Total goals

Under79
Over21

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No74
Yes26

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brasil DE Pelotas ↓

Guarany de Bagé →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–020%

0–110%

0–23%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–022%

1–111%

1–23%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–16%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (22%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

80%20%1.5

47%53%2.5

21%79%3.5

8%92%4.5

2%98%

Double chance

Brasil DE Pelotas or draw

83%

Brasil DE Pelotas or Guarany de Bagé

67%

Draw or Guarany de Bagé

51%

Winning margin

Brasil DE Pelotas wins by 2+

21%

Guarany de Bagé wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Brasil DE Pelotas 1+ goals

66%

Brasil DE Pelotas 2+ goals

29%

Brasil DE Pelotas 3+ goals

10%

Guarany de Bagé 1+ goals

40%

Guarany de Bagé 2+ goals

9%

Guarany de Bagé 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Brasil DE Pelotas (draw refunded)

74%

Guarany de Bagé (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

15%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brasil DE Pelotas at home — creates 0.91, concedes 0.27 · 11 matches

Guarany de Bagé away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brasil DE Pelotas attack 0.91 + Guarany de Bagé defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.08

Guarany de Bagé attack 0.75 + Brasil DE Pelotas defence 0.27 → ÷2 → 0.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Brasil DE Pelotas scores more

49%

level

33%

Guarany de Bagé scores more

17%

Brasil DE Pelotas at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Brasil DE Pelotas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

31'

DG

37'

Jonathan

46'

Denis Germano← Marllon

46'

Vitor Oliveira← Murilo

54'

Joao Victor

64'

Jackson Bernardo← Yan Philippe

65'

Lucas Souza← Jean Lucca

68'

Gabriel Moysés← Mayco Félix

74'

Vini Charopem← Histone Silva

83'

João Araújo← Jonathan Cabeça

83'

Alan Bald← Higor Martins

84'

Higor Farias← Douglas Santos

87'

Ronald← Marcelinho

90+1'

Vini Charopem

90+5'

Denis Germano

Brasil

Guarany

1

2

6

23

3

20

▼

Marllon

10

▼

Marcelinh

8

▼

Murilo

5

Cunha

9

▼

Philippe

7

▼

Lucca

1

Santana

6

▼

13

2

4

8

▼

Cabeça

10

Pires

5

Fabro

11

▼

Santos

7

▼

Silva

9

▼

Félix

Manager: William de Mattia

68'▲Gabriel Moysés←▼Mayco Félix

74'▲Vini Charopem←▼Histone Silva

83'▲João Araújo←▼Jonathan Cabeça

83'▲Alan Bald←▼Higor Martins

84'▲Higor Farias←▼Douglas Santos

Brasil DE Pelotas substitutes

19Moysés17Charopem15Araújo16Bald21Farias18Gelatti3Macedo14Guimarães23Miguel22Sorriso20Jota12Gobetti

Manager: Márcio Nunes

46'▲Denis Germano←▼Marllon

46'▲Vitor Oliveira←▼Murilo

64'▲Jackson Bernardo←▼Yan Philippe

65'▲Lucas Souza←▼Jean Lucca

87'▲Ronald←▼Marcelinho

Guarany de Bagé substitutes

18Germano16Oliveira19Bernardo21Souza15Ronald22Douglas13Pedro14Cambuci17Sena