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Brasil DE Pelotas vs Guarany de Bagé — Copa Gaúcha 2026

Brasil DE Pelotas
Brasil DE Pelotas
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Guarany de Bagé
Guarany de Bagé
Gabriel Morbeck 55'
Guty 16'
5/13/2026Copa GaúchaCopa Gaúcha · Group Stage - 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Brasil DE Pelotas65%
×Draw22%
Guarany de Bagé13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brasil DE Pelotas
1.80
Guarany de Bagé
0.64

Brasil DE Pelotas creates 181% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 3 away

creates per match

Brasil DE Pelotas
2.27
Guarany de Bagé
1.00

allows per match

Brasil DE Pelotas
0.27
Guarany de Bagé
1.33

finishing

Brasil DE Pelotas+0.00on par
Guarany de Bagé+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brasil DE Pelotas ↓

Guarany de Bagé →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Brasil DE Pelotas or draw
87%
Brasil DE Pelotas or Guarany de Bagé
78%
Draw or Guarany de Bagé
35%

Winning margin

Brasil DE Pelotas wins by 2+
39%
Guarany de Bagé wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Brasil DE Pelotas 1+ goals
83%
Brasil DE Pelotas 2+ goals
54%
Brasil DE Pelotas 3+ goals
27%
Guarany de Bagé 1+ goals
47%
Guarany de Bagé 2+ goals
14%
Guarany de Bagé 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Brasil DE Pelotas (draw refunded)
84%
Guarany de Bagé (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brasil DE Pelotas at home — creates 2.27, concedes 0.27 · 11 matches

Guarany de Bagé away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brasil DE Pelotas attack 2.27 + Guarany de Bagé defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.80

Guarany de Bagé attack 1.00 + Brasil DE Pelotas defence 0.27 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Brasil DE Pelotas scores more
65%
level
22%
Guarany de Bagé scores more
13%

Brasil DE Pelotas at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Brasil DE Pelotas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'
Guty
55'
Gabriel Morbeck

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Copa Gaúcha: Brasil DE Pelotas 2–0 Guarany de Bagé

Brasil DE Pelotas beat Guarany de Bagé 2-0 in Copa Gaúcha on May 13, 2026.

Goals: Guty (16'), Gabriel Morbeck (55').