Brasil DE Pelotas 0–0 Guarany de Bagé

Brasil DE Pelotas

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Guarany de Bagé

Murilo 90'

Bruno Cardoso 79'

5/18/2025

Serie D · 1st Phase - 5Estádio Bento da Silva Freitas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Brasil DE Pelotas58%

×Draw27%

Guarany de Bagé14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Brasil DE PelotasExpected goals in this matchGuarany de Bagé

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

0.55

Brasil DE Pelotas

1.42

Guarany de Bagé

0.55

Brasil DE Pelotas creates 158% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 12 away

1.34

creates per match

0.25

0.86

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Brasil DE Pelotas

1.34

Guarany de Bagé

0.25

allows per match

Brasil DE Pelotas

0.86

Guarany de Bagé

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Brasil DE Pelotas+0.00on par

Guarany de Bagé+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No68
Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brasil DE Pelotas ↓

Guarany de Bagé →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–18%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–020%

1–111%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

31%69%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Brasil DE Pelotas or draw

86%

Brasil DE Pelotas or Guarany de Bagé

73%

Draw or Guarany de Bagé

42%

Winning margin

Brasil DE Pelotas wins by 2+

30%

Guarany de Bagé wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Brasil DE Pelotas 1+ goals

76%

Brasil DE Pelotas 2+ goals

41%

Brasil DE Pelotas 3+ goals

17%

Guarany de Bagé 1+ goals

42%

Guarany de Bagé 2+ goals

11%

Guarany de Bagé 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Brasil DE Pelotas (draw refunded)

80%

Guarany de Bagé (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

21%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brasil DE Pelotas at home — creates 1.34, concedes 0.86 · 29 matches

Guarany de Bagé away — creates 0.25, concedes 1.50 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brasil DE Pelotas attack 1.34 + Guarany de Bagé defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.42

Guarany de Bagé attack 0.25 + Brasil DE Pelotas defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Brasil DE Pelotas scores more

58%

level

27%

Guarany de Bagé scores more

14%

Brasil DE Pelotas at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Brasil DE Pelotas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

52'

56'

75'

79'

Bruno Cardoso

90'

90+2'

90'

Murilo

Brasil

Guarany

⚽

⚽

Manager: Emerson Cris

Brasil DE Pelotas substitutes

ArturDiasMaranhãoAlvisiMarcelGobettiIagoLucasLucenaYuriDaniel

Manager: Wiliam Campos

Guarany de Bagé substitutes

DouglasOliveiraRangelJonatanChristianLuccaBizesckiLocatelli

Match Recap: Brasil DE Pelotas vs Guarany de Bagé

Brasil DE Pelotas and Guarany de Bagé drew 0-0 in Serie D on May 18, 2025.

Goals: Bruno Cardoso (79'), Murilo (90').

The match was played at Estádio Bento da Silva Freitas in Pelotas.

Brasil DE Pelotas vs Guarany de Bagé — Serie D 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Brasil DE Pelotas vs Guarany de Bagé