Gualaceo SC 3–2 Chacaritas: Result & Stats

Gualaceo SC

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Chacaritas

D. Wila 85'

M. Tello 75'

W. Godoy 38'

J. J. Molina Renteria 83'

J. Mina 40'

3/20/2025

Liga Pro Serie B · Round 1Estadio Jorge Andrade

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Gualaceo SC65%

×Draw22%

Chacaritas13%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gualaceo SCExpected goals in this matchChacaritas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.84

0.69

Gualaceo SC

1.84

Chacaritas

0.69

Gualaceo SC creates 167% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 20 away

1.28

creates per match

0.55

0.83

allows per match

2.40

creates per match

Gualaceo SC

1.28

Chacaritas

0.55

allows per match

Gualaceo SC

0.83

Chacaritas

2.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gualaceo SC+0.00on par

Chacaritas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gualaceo SC ↓

Chacaritas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–16%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–110%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Gualaceo SC or draw

87%

Gualaceo SC or Chacaritas

78%

Draw or Chacaritas

35%

Winning margin

Gualaceo SC wins by 2+

39%

Chacaritas wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Gualaceo SC 1+ goals

84%

Gualaceo SC 2+ goals

55%

Gualaceo SC 3+ goals

28%

Chacaritas 1+ goals

50%

Chacaritas 2+ goals

15%

Chacaritas 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Gualaceo SC (draw refunded)

83%

Chacaritas (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gualaceo SC at home — creates 1.28, concedes 0.83 · 29 matches

Chacaritas away — creates 0.55, concedes 2.40 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gualaceo SC attack 1.28 + Chacaritas defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 1.84

Chacaritas attack 0.55 + Gualaceo SC defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Gualaceo SC scores more

65%

level

22%

Chacaritas scores more

13%

Gualaceo SC at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Gualaceo SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

38'

W. Godoy

40'

J. Mina

75'

M. Tello

83'

J. J. Molina Renteria

85'

D. Wila

Gualaceo

Chacaritas

33

2

13

28

14

4

77

99

5

90

10

⚽

1

3

23

4

21

5

80

10

70

11

32

Manager: Cipriano

Gualaceo SC substitutes

9Cordara88Wila8Estacio24Delgado14Alvarado12Quiñónez7Caicedo6Obando15Salazar17Zumba99Pita

Manager: C. Calderón

Chacaritas substitutes

70Villamil7Lara37Campaña9Macías1Villarreal3Cerón54Ruiz6Uriarte55Carvajal29Palma