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Chacaritas vs Gualaceo SC — Liga Pro Serie B 2024

Chacaritas
Chacaritas
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Gualaceo SC
Gualaceo SC
R. Cabeza 88'
O. Sainz 11'
9/24/2024Liga Pro Serie BLiga Pro Serie B · Round 31Estadio Jose Silva Romo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Chacaritas38%
×Draw28%
Gualaceo SC34%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chacaritas
1.22
Gualaceo SC
1.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 35 home / 44 away

creates per match

Chacaritas
1.09
Gualaceo SC
0.77

allows per match

Chacaritas
1.49
Gualaceo SC
1.34

finishing

Chacaritas+0.00on par
Gualaceo SC+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chacaritas ↓

Gualaceo SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Chacaritas or draw
66%
Chacaritas or Gualaceo SC
72%
Draw or Gualaceo SC
62%

Winning margin

Chacaritas wins by 2+
16%
Gualaceo SC wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Chacaritas 1+ goals
70%
Chacaritas 2+ goals
34%
Chacaritas 3+ goals
12%
Gualaceo SC 1+ goals
68%
Gualaceo SC 2+ goals
31%
Gualaceo SC 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Chacaritas (draw refunded)
53%
Gualaceo SC (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chacaritas at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.49 · 35 matches

Gualaceo SC away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.34 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chacaritas attack 1.09 + Gualaceo SC defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.22

Gualaceo SC attack 0.77 + Chacaritas defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Chacaritas scores more
38%
level
28%
Gualaceo SC scores more
34%

Chacaritas at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Chacaritas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'
O. Sainz
88'
R. Cabeza

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chacaritas vs Gualaceo SC

Chacaritas and Gualaceo SC drew 1-1 in Liga Pro Serie B on September 24, 2024.

Goals: O. Sainz (11'), R. Cabeza (88').

The match was played at Estadio Jose Silva Romo in Baños de Agua Santa.