Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Chacaritas vs Gualaceo SC — Liga Pro Serie B 2026

Chacaritas
Chacaritas
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Gualaceo SC
Gualaceo SC
K. Valencia 1'
G. Mina 30'
8/17/2025Liga Pro Serie BLiga Pro Serie B · Round 22Estadio Ciudad de Pelileo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Chacaritas38%
×Draw27%
Gualaceo SC34%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chacaritas
1.27
Gualaceo SC
1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 22 home / 29 away

creates per match

Chacaritas
1.23
Gualaceo SC
0.79

allows per match

Chacaritas
1.59
Gualaceo SC
1.31

finishing

Chacaritas+0.00on par
Gualaceo SC+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chacaritas ↓

Gualaceo SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Chacaritas or draw
66%
Chacaritas or Gualaceo SC
73%
Draw or Gualaceo SC
62%

Winning margin

Chacaritas wins by 2+
17%
Gualaceo SC wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Chacaritas 1+ goals
72%
Chacaritas 2+ goals
36%
Chacaritas 3+ goals
14%
Gualaceo SC 1+ goals
70%
Gualaceo SC 2+ goals
33%
Gualaceo SC 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Chacaritas (draw refunded)
53%
Gualaceo SC (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chacaritas at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.59 · 22 matches

Gualaceo SC away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.31 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chacaritas attack 1.23 + Gualaceo SC defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.27

Gualaceo SC attack 0.79 + Chacaritas defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Chacaritas scores more
38%
level
27%
Gualaceo SC scores more
34%

Chacaritas at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Chacaritas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

1'
K. Valencia
30'
G. Mina

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chacaritas vs Gualaceo SC

Chacaritas and Gualaceo SC drew 1-1 in Liga Pro Serie B on August 17, 2025.

Goals: K. Valencia (1'), G. Mina (30').

The match was played at Estadio Ciudad de Pelileo in Pelileo.