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Gualaceo SC vs Chacaritas — Liga Pro Serie B 2024

Gualaceo SC
Gualaceo SC
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Chacaritas
Chacaritas
8/9/2024Liga Pro Serie BLiga Pro Serie B · Round 23Estadio Municipal Jorge Andrade Cantos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Gualaceo SC58%
×Draw25%
Chacaritas17%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gualaceo SC
1.59
Chacaritas
0.71

Gualaceo SC creates 124% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 34 away

creates per match

Gualaceo SC
1.13
Chacaritas
0.53

allows per match

Gualaceo SC
0.89
Chacaritas
2.06

finishing

Gualaceo SC+0.00on par
Chacaritas+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gualaceo SC ↓

Chacaritas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Gualaceo SC or draw
83%
Gualaceo SC or Chacaritas
75%
Draw or Chacaritas
42%

Winning margin

Gualaceo SC wins by 2+
32%
Chacaritas wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Gualaceo SC 1+ goals
80%
Gualaceo SC 2+ goals
47%
Gualaceo SC 3+ goals
21%
Chacaritas 1+ goals
51%
Chacaritas 2+ goals
16%
Chacaritas 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Gualaceo SC (draw refunded)
78%
Chacaritas (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gualaceo SC at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.89 · 46 matches

Chacaritas away — creates 0.53, concedes 2.06 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gualaceo SC attack 1.13 + Chacaritas defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.59

Chacaritas attack 0.53 + Gualaceo SC defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Gualaceo SC scores more
58%
level
25%
Chacaritas scores more
17%

Gualaceo SC at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Gualaceo SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Pro Serie B: Gualaceo SC 0–0 Chacaritas

Gualaceo SC and Chacaritas drew 0-0 in Liga Pro Serie B on August 9, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Jorge Andrade Cantos in Azogues.