Grindavik 2–3 Fjolnir: Result & Stats | 1. Deild

Grindavik

FT

2 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Fjolnir

S. Thasaphong 90+2'

K. Konráðsson 66'

D. Axelsson 75'

G. Guðmundsson 45+6'

M. Hilmarsson 7' (pen)

5/1/2024

1. Deild · Round 1Víkingsvöllur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Grindavik30%

×Draw21%

Fjolnir49%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GrindavikExpected goals in this matchFjolnir

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

2.07

Grindavik

1.58

Fjolnir

2.07

Fjolnir creates 31% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 24 away

1.50

creates per match

2.00

2.14

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Grindavik

1.50

Fjolnir

2.00

allows per match

Grindavik

2.14

Fjolnir

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Grindavik+0.00on par

Fjolnir+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grindavik ↓

Fjolnir →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Grindavik or draw

51%

Grindavik or Fjolnir

79%

Draw or Fjolnir

70%

Winning margin

Grindavik wins by 2+

14%

Fjolnir wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Grindavik 1+ goals

79%

Grindavik 2+ goals

47%

Grindavik 3+ goals

21%

Fjolnir 1+ goals

87%

Fjolnir 2+ goals

61%

Fjolnir 3+ goals

34%

Draw no bet

Grindavik (draw refunded)

38%

Fjolnir (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grindavik at home — creates 1.50, concedes 2.14 · 28 matches

Fjolnir away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.67 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grindavik attack 1.50 + Fjolnir defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.58

Fjolnir attack 2.00 + Grindavik defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 2.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Grindavik scores more

30%

level

21%

Fjolnir scores more

49%

Fjolnir at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Fjolnir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

M. HilmarssonPenalty

16'

D. Gunnarsson← A. Róbertsson

45+5'

E. Vales

45+6'

G. Guðmundsson

52'

H. Magnússon← M. Turkuš

66'

K. Konráðsson

67'

Ó. Thorlacius← D. Hilmarsson

67'

V. Hjálmarsson← A. Harðarson

70'

Ion Perelló← Éric Vales

70'

Nuno Malheiro← H. Jalloh

70'

S. Thasaphong← K. Quee

75'

D. Axelsson

78'

S. Reynisson← D. Ingvarsson

80'

J. Juliusson

86'

S. Reynisson

90+2'

J. Arnarsson← K. Arnarsson

90+2'

S. Thasaphong

Grindavik

Fjolnir

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: B. Gunnarsson

16'▲D. Gunnarsson←▼A. Róbertsson

52'▲H. Magnússon←▼M. Turkuš

70'▲Ion Perelló←▼Éric Vales

70'▲Nuno Malheiro←▼H. Jalloh

70'▲S. Thasaphong←▼K. Quee

Grindavik substitutes

GunnarssonMagnússonPerellóMalheiroThasaphongHávarðarsonHelgason

Manager: Ú. Jökulsson

67'▲Ó. Thorlacius←▼D. Hilmarsson

67'▲V. Hjálmarsson←▼A. Harðarson

78'▲S. Reynisson←▼D. Ingvarsson

90+2'▲J. Arnarsson←▼K. Arnarsson

Fjolnir substitutes

ThorlaciusHjálmarssonReynissonArnarssonJörgenssonHarðarsonSigmarsson