Fjolnir 2–3 Grindavik: Result & Stats | League #168

Fjolnir

FT

2 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Grindavik

D. Ingvarsson 90+3'

Unknown 59'

A. Robertsson 52', 48', 9'

3/5/2025

League #168 · Group Stage - 4Egilshöll

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Fjolnir62%

×Draw17%

Grindavik21%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FjolnirExpected goals in this matchGrindavik

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.10

1.83

Fjolnir

3.10

Grindavik

1.83

Fjolnir creates 69% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 10 away

3.00

creates per match

1.00

2.67

allows per match

3.20

creates per match

Fjolnir

3.00

Grindavik

1.00

allows per match

Fjolnir

2.67

Grindavik

3.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fjolnir+0.00on par

Grindavik+0.00on par

Total goals

Over86
Under14

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes80
No20

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fjolnir ↓

Grindavik →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–11%

0–21%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–02%

1–14%

1–24%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–03%

4–15%

4–25%

4–33%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

96%4%2.5

86%14%3.5

71%29%4.5

53%47%

Double chance

Fjolnir or draw

79%

Fjolnir or Grindavik

83%

Draw or Grindavik

38%

Winning margin

Fjolnir wins by 2+

43%

Grindavik wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Fjolnir 1+ goals

95%

Fjolnir 2+ goals

81%

Fjolnir 3+ goals

58%

Grindavik 1+ goals

84%

Grindavik 2+ goals

54%

Grindavik 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Fjolnir (draw refunded)

74%

Grindavik (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

76%

Both score & under 3

4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fjolnir at home — creates 3.00, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

Grindavik away — creates 1.00, concedes 3.20 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fjolnir attack 3.00 + Grindavik defence 3.20 → ÷2 → 3.10

Grindavik attack 1.00 + Fjolnir defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Fjolnir scores more

62%

level

17%

Grindavik scores more

21%

Fjolnir at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Fjolnir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

27'

48'

52'

57'

A. Hammer← A. Hammer

59'

73'

M. Thorfinnsson← M. Thorfinnsson

76'

A. Robertsson← E. Eythorsson

84'

A. Sigursteinsson

90+2'

L. Thomasson← L. Thomasson

90+2'

H. Hlynsson

90+3'

D. Ingvarsson

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff