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Fjolnir vs Grindavik — 1. Deild 2026

Fjolnir
Fjolnir
FT
2 – 3
HT: 2 – 0
Grindavik
Grindavik
S. Sigmarsson 32'
E. Vilhjalmsson 16'
A. Robertsson 77', 74'
A. Finnbogason 69'
7/11/20251. Deild1. Deild · Round 12Fjölnisvöllur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Fjolnir33%
×Draw21%
Grindavik45%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fjolnir
1.71
Grindavik
2.01

Grindavik creates 18% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 21 away

creates per match

Fjolnir
1.23
Grindavik
1.71

allows per match

Fjolnir
2.31
Grindavik
2.19

finishing

Fjolnir+0.00on par
Grindavik+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fjolnir ↓

Grindavik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Fjolnir or draw
55%
Fjolnir or Grindavik
79%
Draw or Grindavik
67%

Winning margin

Fjolnir wins by 2+
17%
Grindavik wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Fjolnir 1+ goals
82%
Fjolnir 2+ goals
51%
Fjolnir 3+ goals
24%
Grindavik 1+ goals
87%
Grindavik 2+ goals
59%
Grindavik 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Fjolnir (draw refunded)
43%
Grindavik (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fjolnir at home — creates 1.23, concedes 2.31 · 13 matches

Grindavik away — creates 1.71, concedes 2.19 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fjolnir attack 1.23 + Grindavik defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 1.71

Grindavik attack 1.71 + Fjolnir defence 2.31 → ÷2 → 2.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Fjolnir scores more
33%
level
21%
Grindavik scores more
45%

Grindavik at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Grindavik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'
E. Vilhjalmsson
32'
S. Sigmarsson↳ E. O. Hardarson
51'
A. Robertsson
60'
64'
E. Vilhjalmsson← E. Vilhjalmsson
69'
B. T. Hafstein
69'
A. Finnbogason
71'
M. Ellertsson
74'
A. Robertsson
77'
A. Robertsson
82'
A. Arnarsson
85'
A. Robertsson← A. Robertsson
88'
V. Hauksson← V. Hauksson

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Deild: Fjolnir 2–3 Grindavik

Grindavik beat Fjolnir 3-2 in 1. Deild on July 11, 2025.

Goals: E. Vilhjalmsson (16'), S. Sigmarsson (32'), A. Finnbogason (69'), A. Robertsson (74', 77').

The match was played at Fjölnisvöllur in Reykjavík.