Fjolnir 5–1 Grindavik: Result & Stats | 1. Deild

Fjolnir

FT

5 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Grindavik

A. Harðarson 90+4'

M. Hilmarsson 90+1', 78', 60' (pen)

B. Hafstein 12'

J. Krznarić 45+1'

7/18/2024

1. Deild · Round 13Extra völlurinn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Fjolnir47%

×Draw21%

Grindavik32%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FjolnirExpected goals in this matchGrindavik

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.06

1.69

Fjolnir

2.06

Grindavik

1.69

Fjolnir creates 22% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 30 away

1.74

creates per match

1.50

1.87

allows per match

2.37

creates per match

Fjolnir

1.74

Grindavik

1.50

allows per match

Fjolnir

1.87

Grindavik

2.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fjolnir+0.00on par

Grindavik+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fjolnir ↓

Grindavik →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Fjolnir or draw

68%

Fjolnir or Grindavik

79%

Draw or Grindavik

53%

Winning margin

Fjolnir wins by 2+

27%

Grindavik wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Fjolnir 1+ goals

87%

Fjolnir 2+ goals

61%

Fjolnir 3+ goals

34%

Grindavik 1+ goals

82%

Grindavik 2+ goals

50%

Grindavik 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Fjolnir (draw refunded)

59%

Grindavik (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fjolnir at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.87 · 23 matches

Grindavik away — creates 1.50, concedes 2.37 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fjolnir attack 1.74 + Grindavik defence 2.37 → ÷2 → 2.06

Grindavik attack 1.50 + Fjolnir defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Fjolnir scores more

47%

level

21%

Grindavik scores more

32%

Fjolnir at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Fjolnir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

36'

45'

45+1'

57'

60'

M. HilmarssonPenalty

61'

S. Ásgeirsson← K. Konráðsson

62'

K. Arnarsson← O. Þórhallsson

67'

J. Juliusson

72'

A. Harðarson← B. Hafstein

78'

M. Hilmarsson

83'

S. Thasaphong← K. Quee

84'

J. Arnarsson← D. Ingvarsson

84'

S. Reynisson← D. Axelsson

84'

D. Gunnarsson← Ion Perelló

84'

M. Helgason← A. Róbertsson

90+1'

C. Alexandersson← Nuno Malheiro

90+1'

M. Hilmarsson

90+4'

A. Harðarson

Fjolnir

Grindavik

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽3

▼

▼

Manager: Ú. Jökulsson

62'▲K. Arnarsson←▼O. Þórhallsson

72'▲A. Harðarson←▼B. Hafstein

84'▲J. Arnarsson←▼D. Ingvarsson

84'▲S. Reynisson←▼D. Axelsson

Fjolnir substitutes

ArnarssonHarðarsonArnarssonReynissonThorlaciusHarðarsonHjálmarsson

Manager: B. Gunnarsson

61'▲S. Ásgeirsson←▼K. Konráðsson

83'▲S. Thasaphong←▼K. Quee

84'▲D. Gunnarsson←▼Ion Perelló

84'▲M. Helgason←▼A. Róbertsson

90+1'▲C. Alexandersson←▼Nuno Malheiro

Grindavik substitutes

ÁsgeirssonThasaphongGunnarssonHelgasonAlexanderssonHávarðarsonÓlafsson

Match Recap: Fjolnir vs Grindavik

Fjolnir beat Grindavik 5-1 in 1. Deild on July 18, 2024.

Goals: B. Hafstein (12'), J. Krznarić (45+1'), M. Hilmarsson (60' pen, 78', 90+1'), A. Harðarson (90+4').

The match was played at Extra völlurinn in Reykjavík.

Fjolnir vs Grindavik — 1. Deild 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Fjolnir vs Grindavik