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Gremio vs Vasco DA Gama — Serie A 2026

Gremio
Gremio
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Vasco DA Gama
Vasco DA Gama
12/3/2023Serie ASerie A · Round 37Arena do Grêmio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 30+ matches

Gremio49%
×Draw26%
Vasco DA Gama26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gremio
1.54
Vasco DA Gama
1.04

Gremio creates 48% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 30 away

creates per match

Gremio
1.67
Vasco DA Gama
0.90

allows per match

Gremio
1.18
Vasco DA Gama
1.41

finishing

Gremio+0.09on par
Vasco DA Gama+0.17scores more

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gremio ↓

Vasco DA Gama →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Gremio or draw
74%
Gremio or Vasco DA Gama
74%
Draw or Vasco DA Gama
51%

Winning margin

Gremio wins by 2+
25%
Vasco DA Gama wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Gremio 1+ goals
79%
Gremio 2+ goals
45%
Gremio 3+ goals
20%
Vasco DA Gama 1+ goals
65%
Vasco DA Gama 2+ goals
28%
Vasco DA Gama 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Gremio (draw refunded)
66%
Vasco DA Gama (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gremio at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.18 · 33 matches

Vasco DA Gama away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.41 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gremio attack 1.67 + Vasco DA Gama defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.54

Vasco DA Gama attack 0.90 + Gremio defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Gremio scores more
49%
level
26%
Vasco DA Gama scores more
26%

Gremio at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Gremio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gremio vs Vasco DA Gama

Gremio beat Vasco DA Gama 1-0 in Serie A on December 3, 2023.

The match was played at Arena do Grêmio in Porto Alegre, Rio Grande do Sul.