Gremio 2–1 Fortaleza EC: Result & Stats | Serie A

Gremio

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Fortaleza EC

M. Braithwaite 17' (pen), 12' (pen)

Deyverson 24'

7/29/2025

Serie A · Round 14Arena do Grêmio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Gremio51%

×Draw23%

Fortaleza EC25%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GremioExpected goals in this matchFortaleza EC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.17

Gremio

1.77

Fortaleza EC

1.17

Gremio creates 51% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 5 away

1.66

creates per match

1.13

1.21

allows per match

1.89

creates per match

Gremio

1.66

Fortaleza EC

1.13

allows per match

Gremio

1.21

Fortaleza EC

1.89

+0.06on par

finishing

-0.53scores less than expected

finishing

Gremio+0.06on par

Fortaleza EC-0.53scores less

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gremio ↓

Fortaleza EC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Gremio or draw

75%

Gremio or Fortaleza EC

77%

Draw or Fortaleza EC

49%

Winning margin

Gremio wins by 2+

28%

Fortaleza EC wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Gremio 1+ goals

83%

Gremio 2+ goals

53%

Gremio 3+ goals

26%

Fortaleza EC 1+ goals

69%

Fortaleza EC 2+ goals

33%

Fortaleza EC 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Gremio (draw refunded)

67%

Fortaleza EC (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gremio at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.21 · 32 matches

Fortaleza EC away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.89 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gremio attack 1.66 + Fortaleza EC defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.77

Fortaleza EC attack 1.13 + Gremio defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Gremio scores more

51%

level

23%

Fortaleza EC scores more

25%

Gremio at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Gremio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

M. Braithwaite

Gremio · F

8.0

Match Events

-5'

Marinho

9'

Magrão

12'

M. BraithwaitePenalty

17'

M. BraithwaitePenalty

18'

24'

45+6'

45+4'

54'

Camilo Reijers← Gustavo Martins

56'

Deyverson

62'

J. Lucero← J. Herrera

62'

Diogo Barbosa← Bruno Pacheco

66'

C. Pavon← R. Freitas dos Santos

67'

Lucca Prior

76'

Yago Pikachu← Lucca Prior

83'

Edenilson← Alysson

85'

Emmanuel Martinez← E. Mancuso

85'

A. Bareiro← Deyverson

87'

Cristian Olivera

88'

Marlon

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GremioFortaleza

Overview

41%Possession59%

10Total Shots12

2.45Expected Goals (xG)1.67

2Corners5

24Fouls26

Shots

10Total Shots12

4On Target3

4Off Target5

2Blocked4

8Inside Box6

2Outside Box6

Passing

41%Possession59%

355Total Passes510

274Accurate Passes426

77%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

0.04Goals Prevented0.04

Discipline

24Fouls26

3Yellow Cards6

0Offsides1