Gremio 3–1 Fortaleza EC: Result & Stats | Serie A

Gremio

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Fortaleza EC

Y. Soteldo 90+1'

M. Braithwaite 60'

A. Aravena 13'

Hércules 18'

10/5/2024

Serie A · Round 29Arena do Grêmio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Gremio53%

×Draw23%

Fortaleza EC23%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GremioExpected goals in this matchFortaleza EC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.09

Gremio

1.77

Fortaleza EC

1.09

Gremio creates 62% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 6 away

1.67

creates per match

1.00

1.18

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

Gremio

1.67

Fortaleza EC

1.00

allows per match

Gremio

1.18

Fortaleza EC

1.86

+0.09on par

finishing

-0.33scores less than expected

finishing

Gremio+0.09on par

Fortaleza EC-0.33scores less

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gremio ↓

Fortaleza EC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Gremio or draw

77%

Gremio or Fortaleza EC

77%

Draw or Fortaleza EC

47%

Winning margin

Gremio wins by 2+

30%

Fortaleza EC wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Gremio 1+ goals

83%

Gremio 2+ goals

53%

Gremio 3+ goals

26%

Fortaleza EC 1+ goals

66%

Fortaleza EC 2+ goals

30%

Fortaleza EC 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Gremio (draw refunded)

69%

Fortaleza EC (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gremio at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.18 · 33 matches

Fortaleza EC away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.86 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gremio attack 1.67 + Fortaleza EC defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.77

Fortaleza EC attack 1.00 + Gremio defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Gremio scores more

53%

level

23%

Fortaleza EC scores more

23%

Gremio at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Gremio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13

B. Kuščević

Fortaleza EC · D

8.2

Match Events

-5'

Fábio

13'

A. Aravena

18'

Hércules↳ Yago Pikachu

31'

Geromel← Gustavo Martins

35'

Eros Mancuso

60'

M. Braithwaite↳ Dodi

62'

K. Andrade← Zé Welison

62'

T. Pochettino← Hércules

66'

Y. Soteldo← A. Aravena

66'

69'

73'

73'

80'

80'

84'

Rafael Cabral← Caíque

84'

Diego Costa← Edenílson

84'

E. Martínez← Matheus Rossetto

86'

João Pedro

88'

Dodi

90+4'

Benjamin Kuscevic

90+1'

Y. Soteldo↳ Igor

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GremioFortaleza

Overview

38%Possession62%

16Total Shots7

1.69Expected Goals (xG)0.32

10Corners2

11Fouls9

Shots

16Total Shots7

6On Target5

5Off Target2

5Blocked0

10Inside Box4

6Outside Box3

Passing

38%Possession62%

340Total Passes584

261Accurate Passes493

77%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

-1.20Goals Prevented-1.20

Discipline

11Fouls9

2Yellow Cards4

1Red Cards1

2Offsides1