Fortaleza EC 1–0 Gremio: Result & Stats | Serie A

Fortaleza EC

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Gremio

J. Lucero 42' (pen)

6/19/2024

Serie A · Round 10Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Fortaleza EC52%

×Draw25%

Gremio24%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fortaleza ECExpected goals in this matchGremio

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

1.02

Fortaleza EC

1.64

Gremio

1.02

Fortaleza EC creates 61% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 33 away

1.51

creates per match

1.04

1.00

allows per match

1.77

creates per match

Fortaleza EC

1.51

Gremio

1.04

allows per match

Fortaleza EC

1.00

Gremio

1.77

+0.24scores more than expected

finishing

-0.07on par

finishing

Fortaleza EC+0.24scores more

Gremio-0.07on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fortaleza EC ↓

Gremio →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Fortaleza EC or draw

76%

Fortaleza EC or Gremio

75%

Draw or Gremio

48%

Winning margin

Fortaleza EC wins by 2+

28%

Gremio wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Fortaleza EC 1+ goals

81%

Fortaleza EC 2+ goals

49%

Fortaleza EC 3+ goals

23%

Gremio 1+ goals

64%

Gremio 2+ goals

27%

Gremio 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Fortaleza EC (draw refunded)

69%

Gremio (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fortaleza EC at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.00 · 8 matches

Gremio away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.77 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fortaleza EC attack 1.51 + Gremio defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.64

Gremio attack 1.04 + Fortaleza EC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Fortaleza EC scores more

52%

level

25%

Gremio scores more

24%

Fortaleza EC at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Fortaleza EC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18

João Pedro

Gremio · D

7.9

Match Events

33'

Pedro Augusto

37'

TingaPenalty confirmed

42'

J. LuceroPenalty

44'

Pepê

45+8'

Agustín Marchesín

45+4'

Rodrigo Ely

46'

Nathan Fernandes← João Pedro

66'

Edenílson← C. Pavón

66'

F. Carballo← Du Queiroz

67'

Zé Welison← Hércules

73'

Calebe← T. Pochettino

73'

Yago Pikachu← E. Martínez

77'

Lucas Sasha← Pedro Augusto

78'

I. Machuca← Breno Lopes

78'

Nathan← Dodi

80'

Edenilson

86'

F. Cristaldo← João Pedro

90+4'

Juan Martín Lucero

90+2'

Calebe

90+7'

Imanol MachucaPenalty cancelled

90+5'

Reinaldo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FortalezaGremio

Overview

52%Possession48%

13Total Shots8

1.71Expected Goals (xG)1.01

8Corners3

15Fouls7

Shots

13Total Shots8

4On Target2

6Off Target4

3Blocked2

8Inside Box3

5Outside Box5

Passing

52%Possession48%

526Total Passes499

463Accurate Passes426

88%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

0.13Goals Prevented0.13

Discipline

15Fouls7

3Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards1

1Offsides3