Fortaleza EC 2–2 Gremio: Result & Stats | Serie A

Fortaleza EC

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Gremio

M. Pereira 65'

A. Bareiro 5'

Marlon 32'

Carlos Vinicius 14'

11/9/2025

Serie A · Round 33Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Fortaleza EC49%

×Draw26%

Gremio25%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fortaleza ECExpected goals in this matchGremio

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.02

Fortaleza EC

1.54

Gremio

1.02

Fortaleza EC creates 51% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 27 away

1.28

creates per match

0.99

1.06

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

Fortaleza EC

1.28

Gremio

0.99

allows per match

Fortaleza EC

1.06

Gremio

1.79

+0.52scores more than expected

finishing

-0.03on par

finishing

Fortaleza EC+0.52scores more

Gremio-0.03on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fortaleza EC ↓

Gremio →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Fortaleza EC or draw

75%

Fortaleza EC or Gremio

74%

Draw or Gremio

51%

Winning margin

Fortaleza EC wins by 2+

25%

Gremio wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Fortaleza EC 1+ goals

79%

Fortaleza EC 2+ goals

45%

Fortaleza EC 3+ goals

20%

Gremio 1+ goals

64%

Gremio 2+ goals

27%

Gremio 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Fortaleza EC (draw refunded)

66%

Gremio (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fortaleza EC at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.06 · 5 matches

Gremio away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.79 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fortaleza EC attack 1.28 + Gremio defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.54

Gremio attack 0.99 + Fortaleza EC defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Fortaleza EC scores more

49%

level

26%

Gremio scores more

25%

Fortaleza EC at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Fortaleza EC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

Marlon

Gremio · D

8.5

Match Events

5'

A. Bareiro↳ T. Pochettino

9'

Emanuel Brítez

14'

Carlos Vinicius

32'

Marlon↳ Carlos Vinicius

44'

Erick Noriega

46'

M. Pereira← Lucas Sasha

46'

J. Herrera← T. Pochettino

46'

Moises← Lucas Crispim

59'

Gustavo Cuéllar

62'

Bruno Pacheco

62'

F. Cristaldo← Alysson

62'

Andre Henrique← Carlos Vinicius

64'

Walter Kannemann

65'

M. Pereira

68'

Dodi← G. Cuellar

71'

Edenilson

79'

Gustavo Martins← Edenilson

79'

A. Aravena← F. Amuzu

82'

Matheus Rossetto← Pierre

83'

Matheus Rossetto

89'

Deyverson← Breno Lopes

90+3'

Adam Bareiro

90+10'

Matheus Pereira

90+7'

Matheus PereiraCard upgrade

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FortalezaGremio

Overview

54%Possession46%

21Total Shots19

1.04Expected Goals (xG)2.28

7Corners5

15Fouls18

Shots

21Total Shots19

9On Target6

8Off Target5

4Blocked8

12Inside Box16

9Outside Box3

Passing

54%Possession46%

389Total Passes332

332Accurate Passes283

85%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

4Saves7

-0.53Goals Prevented-0.53

Discipline

15Fouls18

4Yellow Cards4

1Red Cards0

2Offsides1