Gremio 1–2 Criciuma: Result & Stats | Serie A

Gremio

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Criciuma

M. Villasanti 67'

Ronald 78'

Arthur Caíke 14'

9/25/2024

Serie A · Round 5Arena do Grêmio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Gremio47%

×Draw26%

Criciuma27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GremioExpected goals in this matchCriciuma

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.06

Gremio

1.50

Criciuma

1.06

Gremio creates 42% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 10 away

1.46

creates per match

0.97

1.16

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Gremio

1.46

Criciuma

0.97

allows per match

Gremio

1.16

Criciuma

1.53

+0.07on par

finishing

+0.13scores more than expected

finishing

Gremio+0.07on par

Criciuma+0.13scores more

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gremio ↓

Criciuma →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Gremio or draw

73%

Gremio or Criciuma

74%

Draw or Criciuma

53%

Winning margin

Gremio wins by 2+

24%

Criciuma wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Gremio 1+ goals

78%

Gremio 2+ goals

44%

Gremio 3+ goals

19%

Criciuma 1+ goals

65%

Criciuma 2+ goals

29%

Criciuma 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Gremio (draw refunded)

64%

Criciuma (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gremio at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.16 · 45 matches

Criciuma away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.53 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gremio attack 1.46 + Criciuma defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.50

Criciuma attack 0.97 + Gremio defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Gremio scores more

47%

level

26%

Criciuma scores more

27%

Gremio at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Gremio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

M. Villasanti

Gremio · M

8.5

Match Events

14'

Arthur Caíke

17'

Miguel Monsalve

52'

Claudinho← Dudu

53'

Newton

56'

Fellipe Mateus

59'

Diego Costa← F. Cristaldo

67'

M. Villasanti↳ Diego Costa

72'

Matheusinho

72'

Jhonata Robert← Fellipe Mateus

72'

Ronald← Matheusinho

78'

Ronald↳ Arthur Caíke

84'

Edenílson← João Pedro

84'

A. Aravena← M. Monsalve

84'

M. Arezo← M. Braithwaite

84'

Walisson Maia← Barreto

84'

Felipe Vizeu← Arthur Caíke

85'

Diego Costa

85'

Walisson Maia

90+7'

Ronald

90'

Ronald← Dodi

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GremioCriciuma

Overview

65%Possession35%

14Total Shots11

1.28Expected Goals (xG)0.77

6Corners3

8Fouls12

Shots

14Total Shots11

3On Target4

5Off Target5

6Blocked2

11Inside Box3

3Outside Box8

Passing

65%Possession35%

597Total Passes322

528Accurate Passes259

88%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

-0.51Goals Prevented-0.51

Discipline

8Fouls12

2Yellow Cards5

0Offsides1