Criciuma 2–0 Gremio: Result & Stats | Serie B

Criciuma

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Gremio

Bilu 86' (pen)

Caio Dantas 12'

8/31/2022

Serie B · Round 27Estádio Heriberto Hülse

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Criciuma46%

×Draw32%

Gremio22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CriciumaExpected goals in this matchGremio

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

0.66

Criciuma

1.10

Gremio

0.66

Criciuma creates 67% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 19 away

1.37

creates per match

0.68

0.64

allows per match

0.84

creates per match

Criciuma

1.37

Gremio

0.68

allows per match

Criciuma

0.64

Gremio

0.84

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Criciuma+0.00on par

Gremio+0.00on par

Total goals

Under74
Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No68
Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Criciuma ↓

Gremio →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–017%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–019%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–17%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

83%17%1.5

53%47%2.5

26%74%3.5

10%90%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Criciuma or draw

78%

Criciuma or Gremio

68%

Draw or Gremio

54%

Winning margin

Criciuma wins by 2+

19%

Gremio wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Criciuma 1+ goals

67%

Criciuma 2+ goals

30%

Criciuma 3+ goals

10%

Gremio 1+ goals

48%

Gremio 2+ goals

14%

Gremio 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Criciuma (draw refunded)

68%

Gremio (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

20%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Criciuma at home — creates 1.37, concedes 0.64 · 89 matches

Gremio away — creates 0.68, concedes 0.84 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Criciuma attack 1.37 + Gremio defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.10

Gremio attack 0.68 + Criciuma defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Criciuma scores more

46%

level

32%

Gremio scores more

22%

Criciuma at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Criciuma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3

Geromel

Gremio · D

7.5

Match Events

12'

Caio Dantas↳ Thiago Alagoano

15'

Bitelo

39'

J. Campaz← Janderson

60'

Elkeson← Lucas Leiva

60'

Diogo Barbosa← Nicolas

68'

J. Campaz

71'

Fernando Viana← Caio Dantas

71'

Bilu← Thiago Alagoano

71'

Thaciano← M. Villasanti

71'

Gabriel Silva← Guilherme

84'

Edilson

86'

BiluPenalty

90+6'

Marcos Serrato

90+1'

Gedeílson← Cristovam

90+5'

Marcelo Hermes← Hygor

90+1'

Rômulo← Fellipe Mateus

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CriciumaGremio

Overview

42%Possession58%

16Total Shots2

7Corners6

16Fouls13

Shots

16Total Shots2

6On Target1

4Off Target1

6Blocked0

6Inside Box1

10Outside Box1

Passing

42%Possession58%

349Total Passes478

264Accurate Passes400

76%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

16Fouls13

1Yellow Cards3

1Offsides0