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Gremio vs Criciuma — Serie B 2026

Gremio
Gremio
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Criciuma
Criciuma
5/19/2022Serie BSerie B · Round 8Arena do Grêmio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Gremio57%
×Draw26%
Criciuma17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gremio
1.54
Criciuma
0.72

Gremio creates 114% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 87 away

creates per match

Gremio
1.95
Criciuma
0.90

allows per match

Gremio
0.53
Criciuma
1.14

finishing

Gremio+0.00on par
Criciuma+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gremio ↓

Criciuma →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Gremio or draw
83%
Gremio or Criciuma
74%
Draw or Criciuma
43%

Winning margin

Gremio wins by 2+
30%
Criciuma wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Gremio 1+ goals
79%
Gremio 2+ goals
45%
Gremio 3+ goals
20%
Criciuma 1+ goals
51%
Criciuma 2+ goals
16%
Criciuma 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Gremio (draw refunded)
77%
Criciuma (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gremio at home — creates 1.95, concedes 0.53 · 19 matches

Criciuma away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.14 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gremio attack 1.95 + Criciuma defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.54

Criciuma attack 0.90 + Gremio defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Gremio scores more
57%
level
26%
Criciuma scores more
17%

Gremio at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Gremio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
GustavoCriciumaCriciuma · G
8.3

Match Events

4'
Hygor
13'
Lucas Silva
57'
Sarará← Lucas Silva
57'
J. Campaz← Rodrigues
61'
Gustavo
62'
Fellipe Mateus
66'
Rômulo← Fellipe Mateus
66'
Caio Dantas← Thiago Alagoano
66'
R. Bressan← Hygor
70'
Caio Dantas
72'
Elias Manoel← Elkeson
79'
Fernando Henrique← M. Villasanti
79'
Gabriel Silva← Gabriel Teixeira
85'
Cristovam← Claudinho
90'
Eduardo← Bilu

Possession

61%Gremio

Shots

21Gremio

Pass accuracy

52%Gremio

Statistics

GremioCriciuma
Overview
61%Possession39%
21Total Shots12
9Corners3
15Fouls15
Shots
21Total Shots12
7On Target1
5Off Target9
9Blocked2
15Inside Box2
6Outside Box10
Passing
61%Possession39%
536Total Passes352
443Accurate Passes275
83%Pass Accuracy78%
Goalkeeping
1Saves7
Discipline
15Fouls15
1Yellow Cards4
2Offsides2

Serie B: Gremio 0–0 Criciuma

Gremio and Criciuma drew 0-0 in Serie B on May 19, 2022.

Gremio controlled possession (61%) and registered 21 shots to 12.

The match was played at Arena do Grêmio in Porto Alegre, Rio Grande do Sul.