Criciuma 0–3 Gremio: Result & Stats | Serie A

Criciuma

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Gremio

Ramiro 66'

H. Barcos 38'

Dudu 13'

11/15/2014

Serie A · Round 34Estádio Heriberto Hülse (Criciúma, Santa Catarina)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Criciuma43%

×Draw27%

Gremio30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CriciumaExpected goals in this matchGremio

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.07

Criciuma

1.34

Gremio

1.07

Criciuma creates 25% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 44 away

1.01

creates per match

0.98

1.17

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Criciuma

1.01

Gremio

0.98

allows per match

Criciuma

1.17

Gremio

1.67

-0.01on par

finishing

+0.02on par

finishing

Criciuma-0.01on par

Gremio+0.02on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Criciuma ↓

Gremio →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Criciuma or draw

70%

Criciuma or Gremio

73%

Draw or Gremio

57%

Winning margin

Criciuma wins by 2+

20%

Gremio wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Criciuma 1+ goals

74%

Criciuma 2+ goals

39%

Criciuma 3+ goals

15%

Gremio 1+ goals

66%

Gremio 2+ goals

29%

Gremio 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Criciuma (draw refunded)

59%

Gremio (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Criciuma at home — creates 1.01, concedes 1.17 · 10 matches

Gremio away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.67 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Criciuma attack 1.01 + Gremio defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.34

Gremio attack 0.98 + Criciuma defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Criciuma scores more

43%

level

27%

Gremio scores more

30%

Criciuma at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Criciuma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

Dudu

38'

H. Barcos↳ Zé Roberto

46'

Maurinho← Luís Felipe

46'

Paulo Baier← Martinez

66'

Ramiro↳ Dudu

74'

A. Ruiz← Luan

77'

Ricardinho← Souza

82'

Lucas Coelho← H. Barcos

90+1'

Everton← Dudu

Criciuma

Gremio

A

⚽A

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

46'▲Maurinho←▼Luís Felipe

46'▲Paulo Baier←▼Martinez

77'▲Ricardinho←▼Souza

Criciuma substitutes

MaurinhoBaierRicardinhoAndrewLopesMarddenSabiáMaiconCostaSouzaSerginho

74'▲A. Ruiz←▼Luan

82'▲Lucas Coelho←▼H. Barcos

90+1'▲Everton←▼Dudu

Gremio substitutes

RuizCoelhoEvertonBressanEdinhoGiulianoLeonardoRodríguezWerley

Serie A: Criciuma 0–3 Gremio

Gremio beat Criciuma 3-0 in Serie A on November 15, 2014.

Goals: Dudu (13'), H. Barcos (38'), Ramiro (66').

The match was played at Estádio Heriberto Hülse (Criciúma, Santa Catarina).

Criciuma vs Gremio — Serie A 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Serie A: Criciuma 0–3 Gremio