Granada CF 1–1 Albacete: Result & Stats

Granada CF

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Albacete

J. M. Arnaiz 6'

J. Betancor 73' (pen)

12/21/2025

Segunda División · Round 19Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Granada CF50%

×Draw27%

Albacete23%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Granada CFExpected goals in this matchAlbacete

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

0.90

Granada CF

1.45

Albacete

0.90

Granada CF creates 61% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 152 away

1.56

creates per match

1.03

0.76

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Granada CF

1.56

Albacete

1.03

allows per match

Granada CF

0.76

Albacete

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Granada CF+0.00on par

Albacete+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Granada CF ↓

Albacete →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Granada CF or draw

77%

Granada CF or Albacete

73%

Draw or Albacete

50%

Winning margin

Granada CF wins by 2+

25%

Albacete wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Granada CF 1+ goals

77%

Granada CF 2+ goals

42%

Granada CF 3+ goals

18%

Albacete 1+ goals

59%

Albacete 2+ goals

23%

Albacete 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Granada CF (draw refunded)

68%

Albacete (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Granada CF at home — creates 1.56, concedes 0.76 · 84 matches

Albacete away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.33 · 152 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Granada CF attack 1.56 + Albacete defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.45

Albacete attack 1.03 + Granada CF defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Granada CF scores more

50%

level

27%

Albacete scores more

23%

Granada CF at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Granada CF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

S. Faye

Granada CF · F

9.0

Match Events

6'

J. M. Arnaiz↳ S. Faye

44'

Álex Sola

46'

J. Villar← R. Rodriguez

46'

J. Betancor← J. Lazo

46'

J. Morcillo← C. Neva

46'

Lorenzo← F. Gamez

51'

Javier Moreno

52'

Oscar Naasei

52'

Jefté Betancor

69'

S. Ruiz← J. M. Arnaiz

70'

Ander Astralaga

72'

Baïla Diallo

73'

J. BetancorPenalty

81'

S. Rodelas← S. Faye

81'

M. Bouldini← J. Pascual

81'

P. Casadesus← O. Naasei

81'

Jogo← D. Bernabeu

84'

M. Trigueros← P. Aleman

90+5'

Jonathan Gómez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GranadaAlbacete

Overview

57%Possession43%

18Total Shots13

6Corners5

12Fouls12

Shots

18Total Shots13

5On Target4

10Off Target7

3Blocked2

13Inside Box8

5Outside Box5

Passing

57%Possession43%

427Total Passes329

359Accurate Passes255

84%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

12Fouls12

4Yellow Cards3

2Offsides0