Granada CF 1–2 Albacete: Result & Stats

Granada CF

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Albacete

Miguel Rubio 29'

Higinio Marín 45+3' (pen)

Jon Morcillo 42'

8/15/2024

Segunda División · Round 1Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Granada CF42%

×Draw26%

Albacete32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Granada CFExpected goals in this matchAlbacete

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

1.21

Granada CF

1.43

Albacete

1.21

Granada CF creates 18% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

1.47

creates per match

1.65

0.78

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Granada CF

1.47

Albacete

1.65

allows per match

Granada CF

0.78

Albacete

1.39

+0.33scores more than expected

finishing

-0.85scores less than expected

finishing

Granada CF+0.33scores more

Albacete-0.85scores less

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Granada CF ↓

Albacete →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Granada CF or draw

68%

Granada CF or Albacete

74%

Draw or Albacete

58%

Winning margin

Granada CF wins by 2+

20%

Albacete wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Granada CF 1+ goals

76%

Granada CF 2+ goals

42%

Granada CF 3+ goals

17%

Albacete 1+ goals

70%

Albacete 2+ goals

34%

Albacete 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Granada CF (draw refunded)

57%

Albacete (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Granada CF at home — creates 1.47, concedes 0.78 · 5 matches

Albacete away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.39 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Granada CF attack 1.47 + Albacete defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.43

Albacete attack 1.65 + Granada CF defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Granada CF scores more

42%

level

26%

Albacete scores more

32%

Granada CF at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Granada CF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13

Raúl Lizoain

Albacete · G

9.2

Match Events

-5'

20'

26'

28'

29'

Miguel Rubio↳ Sergio Ruiz

42'

Jon Morcillo↳ Higinio Marín

45+6'

Myrto Uzuni

45+5'

Martin Hongla

45+2'

Sergio Ruiz Alonso

45+7'

Jon GarciaGoal cancelled

45+3'

Higinio MarínPenalty

46'

Manu Trigueros← M. Hongla

46'

Juan María Alcedo← Jaume Costa

63'

T. Corbeanu← K. Jóźwiak

67'

Rai Marchán← Higinio Marín

68'

Juanma García← Fidel

69'

Agus Medina

70'

L. Boyé← S. Weissman

70'

Pablo Sáenz← G. Tsitaishvili

73'

Miguel RubioGoal cancelled

79'

Javi Rueda← Álvaro Rodríguez

84'

Gonzalo Villar← Pablo Insua

84'

Álex Meléndez← Juan Antonio

90+1'

Carlos Neva

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GranadaAlbacete

Overview

66%Possession34%

20Total Shots9

9Corners5

9Fouls11

Shots

20Total Shots9

9On Target3

10Off Target2

1Blocked4

17Inside Box7

3Outside Box2

Passing

66%Possession34%

452Total Passes240

394Accurate Passes178

87%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

1Saves8

Discipline

9Fouls11

6Yellow Cards3

3Offsides7