Albacete 4–1 Granada CF: Result & Stats

Albacete

FT

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Granada CF

J. Lazo 79'

S. Obeng 71'

L. Lopez 15'

Jogo 10'

G. Petit 62'

4/19/2026

Segunda División · Round 36Estadio Carlos Belmonte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Albacete46%

×Draw26%

Granada CF28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AlbaceteExpected goals in this matchGranada CF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

1.09

Albacete

1.47

Granada CF

1.09

Albacete creates 35% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

1.31

creates per match

0.83

1.36

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Albacete

1.31

Granada CF

0.83

allows per match

Albacete

1.36

Granada CF

1.62

-0.14scores less than expected

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Albacete-0.14scores less

Granada CF+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Albacete ↓

Granada CF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Albacete or draw

72%

Albacete or Granada CF

74%

Draw or Granada CF

54%

Winning margin

Albacete wins by 2+

23%

Granada CF wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Albacete 1+ goals

77%

Albacete 2+ goals

43%

Albacete 3+ goals

18%

Granada CF 1+ goals

66%

Granada CF 2+ goals

30%

Granada CF 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Albacete (draw refunded)

62%

Granada CF (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Albacete at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.36 · 6 matches

Granada CF away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.62 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Albacete attack 1.31 + Granada CF defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.47

Granada CF attack 0.83 + Albacete defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Albacete scores more

46%

level

26%

Granada CF scores more

28%

Albacete at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Albacete will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

A. Sola

Granada CF · F

8.2

Match Events

10'

15'

32'

33'

41'

46'

46'

46'

M. Trigueros← I. Gonzalez

47'

Fran Gámez

53'

Diego Hormigo

57'

Oscar Naasei

61'

S. Rodelas← D. Hormigo

62'

G. Petit↳ A. Sola

70'

S. Obeng← A. Melendez

70'

Lorenzo← A. Rubio

70'

A. Pacheco← Capi

71'

S. Obeng↳ Lorenzo

73'

B. Diocou← A. Lemos

79'

J. Lazo↳ C. Neva

84'

J. Moreno← F. Gamez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AlbaceteGranada

Overview

27%Possession73%

12Total Shots15

3Corners6

18Fouls10

Shots

12Total Shots15

6On Target4

4Off Target6

2Blocked5

8Inside Box8

4Outside Box7

Passing

27%Possession73%

218Total Passes605

155Accurate Passes538

71%Pass Accuracy89%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

18Fouls10

2Yellow Cards3