Albacete 1–2 Granada CF: Result & Stats

Albacete

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Granada CF

Higinio Marín 64'

Ricard Sánchez 54'

M. Uzuni 30'

3/18/2023

Segunda División · Round 32Estadio Carlos Belmonte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Albacete46%

×Draw26%

Granada CF28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AlbaceteExpected goals in this matchGranada CF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

1.09

Albacete

1.47

Granada CF

1.09

Albacete creates 35% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

1.31

creates per match

0.83

1.36

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Albacete

1.31

Granada CF

0.83

allows per match

Albacete

1.36

Granada CF

1.62

-0.14scores less than expected

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Albacete-0.14scores less

Granada CF+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Albacete ↓

Granada CF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Albacete or draw

72%

Albacete or Granada CF

74%

Draw or Granada CF

54%

Winning margin

Albacete wins by 2+

23%

Granada CF wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Albacete 1+ goals

77%

Albacete 2+ goals

43%

Albacete 3+ goals

18%

Granada CF 1+ goals

66%

Granada CF 2+ goals

30%

Granada CF 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Albacete (draw refunded)

62%

Granada CF (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Albacete at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.36 · 6 matches

Granada CF away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.62 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Albacete attack 1.31 + Granada CF defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.47

Granada CF attack 0.83 + Albacete defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Albacete scores more

46%

level

26%

Granada CF scores more

28%

Albacete at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Albacete will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

30

Ricard Sánchez

Granada CF · D

8.3

Match Events

30'

M. Uzuni↳ Ricard Sánchez

37'

Riki Rodríguez

54'

Ricard Sánchez↳ M. Uzuni

56'

Juan Antonio← Fran Álvarez

57'

Yann Bodiger

59'

Manuel Fuster

59'

Miguel Rubio← Víctor Díaz

59'

Alberto Perea← José Callejón

62'

Juanma García← Antonio Cristian

64'

Higinio Marín↳ Manu Fuster

66'

Miguel Rubio

70'

F. Diédhiou← S. Weissman

70'

Antonio Puertas← Óscar Melendo

75'

Myrto Uzuni

75'

Carlos Muñoz← Álvaro Rodríguez

75'

Dani Escriche← Jonathan Dubasin

79'

N. Petrović← M. Uzuni

84'

86'

90+6'

90+6'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AlbaceteGranada

Overview

48%Possession52%

9Total Shots9

5Corners2

12Fouls14

Shots

9Total Shots9

5On Target4

3Off Target4

1Blocked1

5Inside Box8

4Outside Box1

Passing

48%Possession52%

366Total Passes403

270Accurate Passes298

74%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

0Saves4

Discipline

12Fouls14

3Yellow Cards6

3Offsides1

Match Recap: Albacete vs Granada CF

Granada CF beat Albacete 2-1 in Segunda División on March 18, 2023.

Goals: M. Uzuni (30'), Ricard Sánchez (54'), Higinio Marín (64').

Granada CF controlled possession (52%) and registered 9 shots to 9.

The match was played at Estadio Carlos Belmonte in Albacete.

Albacete vs Granada CF — Segunda División 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Albacete vs Granada CF