Gimnasia L.P. 1–1 Deportivo Riestra: Result & Stats

Gimnasia L.P.

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Deportivo Riestra

Murillo Yaison 90' (OG)

A. Alonso 3'

3/10/2025

Liga Profesional Argentina · 1st Phase - 9Estadio Juan Carmelo Zerillo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 16+ matches

Gimnasia L.P.42%

×Draw30%

Deportivo Riestra28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gimnasia L.P.Expected goals in this matchDeportivo Riestra

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

0.90

Gimnasia L.P.

1.16

Deportivo Riestra

0.90

Gimnasia L.P. creates 29% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 16 away

1.07

creates per match

0.68

1.11

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Gimnasia L.P.

1.07

Deportivo Riestra

0.68

allows per match

Gimnasia L.P.

1.11

Deportivo Riestra

1.25

-0.24scores less than expected

finishing

+0.01on par

finishing

Gimnasia L.P.-0.24scores less

Deportivo Riestra+0.01on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gimnasia L.P. ↓

Deportivo Riestra →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Gimnasia L.P. or draw

72%

Gimnasia L.P. or Deportivo Riestra

70%

Draw or Deportivo Riestra

58%

Winning margin

Gimnasia L.P. wins by 2+

18%

Deportivo Riestra wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Gimnasia L.P. 1+ goals

69%

Gimnasia L.P. 2+ goals

32%

Gimnasia L.P. 3+ goals

11%

Deportivo Riestra 1+ goals

59%

Deportivo Riestra 2+ goals

23%

Deportivo Riestra 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Gimnasia L.P. (draw refunded)

60%

Deportivo Riestra (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gimnasia L.P. at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.11 · 23 matches

Deportivo Riestra away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.25 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gimnasia L.P. attack 1.07 + Deportivo Riestra defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.16

Deportivo Riestra attack 0.68 + Gimnasia L.P. defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Gimnasia L.P. scores more

42%

level

30%

Deportivo Riestra scores more

28%

Gimnasia L.P. at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Gimnasia L.P. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14

P. Silva Torrejon

Gimnasia L.P. · D

8.0

Match Events

3'

A. Alonso↳ N. Sansotre

41'

45+1'

51'

55'

59'

Jan Hurtado← N. Garayalde

68'

A. Diaz← N. Benegas

73'

F. Corbalan← J. Pintado

73'

M. Panaro← A. Piedrahita

79'

Mariano Bracamonte

79'

Murillo Yaison← J. Goitia

79'

M. Bracamonte← P. Ramirez

82'

S. Villarreal← A. Sosa

82'

I. Mammini← R. Castillo

87'

Gastón Suso

90'

Murillo YaisonOwn goal

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GimnasiaDeportivo

Overview

75%Possession25%

16Total Shots4

7Corners2

12Fouls16

Shots

16Total Shots4

4On Target2

5Off Target1

7Blocked1

9Inside Box2

7Outside Box2

Passing

75%Possession25%

560Total Passes191

460Accurate Passes85

82%Pass Accuracy45%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

12Fouls16

2Yellow Cards3

2Offsides0