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Deportivo Riestra vs Gimnasia L.P. — Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

Deportivo Riestra
Deportivo Riestra
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Gimnasia L.P.
Gimnasia L.P.
M. Celiz 54'
9/19/2025Liga Profesional ArgentinaLiga Profesional Argentina · 2nd Phase - 9Estadio Guillermo Laza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 16+ matches

Deportivo Riestra42%
×Draw30%
Gimnasia L.P.28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Riestra
1.19
Gimnasia L.P.
0.92

Deportivo Riestra creates 29% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 26 away

creates per match

Deportivo Riestra
1.17
Gimnasia L.P.
0.90

allows per match

Deportivo Riestra
0.94
Gimnasia L.P.
1.22

finishing

Deportivo Riestra+0.08on par
Gimnasia L.P.-0.09on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Riestra ↓

Gimnasia L.P. →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Deportivo Riestra or draw
72%
Deportivo Riestra or Gimnasia L.P.
70%
Draw or Gimnasia L.P.
58%

Winning margin

Deportivo Riestra wins by 2+
18%
Gimnasia L.P. wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Deportivo Riestra 1+ goals
70%
Deportivo Riestra 2+ goals
33%
Deportivo Riestra 3+ goals
12%
Gimnasia L.P. 1+ goals
60%
Gimnasia L.P. 2+ goals
23%
Gimnasia L.P. 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Riestra (draw refunded)
60%
Gimnasia L.P. (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Riestra at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.94 · 16 matches

Gimnasia L.P. away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.22 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Riestra attack 1.17 + Gimnasia L.P. defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.19

Gimnasia L.P. attack 0.90 + Deportivo Riestra defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Deportivo Riestra scores more
42%
level
30%
Gimnasia L.P. scores more
28%

Deportivo Riestra at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Deportivo Riestra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8
M. CelizDeportivo RiestraDeportivo Riestra · M
8.6

Match Events

24'
Cristian Paz
41'
Nicolás Sansotre
45+7'
Bautista Merlini
50'
Facundo Miño
54'
M. Celiz
57'
Renzo Giampaoli
65'
Juan Pintado
66'
M. Panaro← J. Pintado
66'
N. Briasco← M. Seoane
69'
J. Goitia← A. Alonso
73'
Marcelo Torres
76'
F. Di Biasi← A. Max
76'
L. Mamut← B. Merlini
81'
J. Randazzo← M. Barbieri
81'
G. Obredor← J. Herrera
81'
N. Benegas← A. Diaz
81'
J. Merlo← R. Giampaoli
87'
A. Stringa← M. Celiz

Possession

37%Deportivo

Shots

12Deportivo

Pass accuracy

44%Deportivo

Statistics

DeportivoGimnasia
Overview
37%Possession63%
12Total Shots10
0.96Expected Goals (xG)0.49
2Corners4
9Fouls11
Shots
12Total Shots10
2On Target4
7Off Target3
3Blocked3
8Inside Box6
4Outside Box4
Passing
37%Possession63%
288Total Passes484
173Accurate Passes375
60%Pass Accuracy77%
Goalkeeping
4Saves1
-0.45Goals Prevented-0.45
Discipline
9Fouls11
3Yellow Cards4

Liga Profesional Argentina: Deportivo Riestra 1–0 Gimnasia L.P.

Deportivo Riestra beat Gimnasia L.P. 1-0 in Liga Profesional Argentina on September 19, 2025.

Goals: M. Celiz (54').

Gimnasia L.P. controlled possession (63%) and registered 10 shots to 12.

The match was played at Estadio Guillermo Laza in Buenos Aires.