Gimnasia L.P. 2–1 Deportivo Riestra: Result & Stats

Gimnasia L.P.

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Deportivo Riestra

E. Ramírez 73'

L. Morales 39'

J. Herrera 64'

3/31/2024

League #1032 · 1st Phase - 12Estadio Juan Carmelo Zerillo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Gimnasia L.P.37%

×Draw26%

Deportivo Riestra37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gimnasia L.P.Expected goals in this matchDeportivo Riestra

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

Gimnasia L.P.

1.38

Deportivo Riestra

1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

1.75

creates per match

1.00

1.75

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Gimnasia L.P.

1.75

Deportivo Riestra

1.00

allows per match

Gimnasia L.P.

1.75

Deportivo Riestra

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gimnasia L.P.+0.00on par

Deportivo Riestra+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gimnasia L.P. ↓

Deportivo Riestra →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Gimnasia L.P. or draw

63%

Gimnasia L.P. or Deportivo Riestra

74%

Draw or Deportivo Riestra

63%

Winning margin

Gimnasia L.P. wins by 2+

17%

Deportivo Riestra wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Gimnasia L.P. 1+ goals

75%

Gimnasia L.P. 2+ goals

40%

Gimnasia L.P. 3+ goals

16%

Deportivo Riestra 1+ goals

75%

Deportivo Riestra 2+ goals

40%

Deportivo Riestra 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Gimnasia L.P. (draw refunded)

50%

Deportivo Riestra (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gimnasia L.P. at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

Deportivo Riestra away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gimnasia L.P. attack 1.75 + Deportivo Riestra defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.38

Deportivo Riestra attack 1.00 + Gimnasia L.P. defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Gimnasia L.P. scores more

37%

level

26%

Deportivo Riestra scores more

37%

Gimnasia L.P. at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Gimnasia L.P. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

L. Morales

Gimnasia L.P. · D

8.3

Match Events

28'

Yonathan Rodríguez

39'

L. Morales↳ P. De Blasis

51'

Milton Celiz

55'

M. Ortiz← D. Minervino

58'

Mauro Ortíz

64'

J. Herrera↳ N. Benegas

71'

R. Castillo← F. Troyansky

71'

D. Zalazar← Y. Rodríguez

73'

E. Ramírez↳ D. Zalazar

74'

J. Goitía← J. Herrera

78'

A. Bolívar← E. Ramírez

78'

F. Milo← N. Colazo

83'

L. Landriel← G. Pereira

90+3'

M. Ramírez← L. Castro

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GimnasiaDeportivo

Overview

66%Possession34%

15Total Shots7

6Corners4

10Fouls12

Shots

15Total Shots7

5On Target1

8Off Target4

2Blocked2

11Inside Box3

4Outside Box4

Passing

66%Possession34%

519Total Passes276

401Accurate Passes159

77%Pass Accuracy58%

Goalkeeping

0Saves3

Discipline

10Fouls12

1Yellow Cards2

6Offsides0