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Gimnasia L.P. vs Deportivo Riestra — Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

Gimnasia L.P.
Gimnasia L.P.
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Deportivo Riestra
Deportivo Riestra
9/20/2024Liga Profesional ArgentinaLiga Profesional Argentina · 2nd Phase - 15Estadio Juan Carmelo Zerillo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 16+ matches

Gimnasia L.P.42%
×Draw30%
Deportivo Riestra28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gimnasia L.P.
1.16
Deportivo Riestra
0.90

Gimnasia L.P. creates 29% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 16 away

creates per match

Gimnasia L.P.
1.07
Deportivo Riestra
0.68

allows per match

Gimnasia L.P.
1.11
Deportivo Riestra
1.25

finishing

Gimnasia L.P.-0.24scores less
Deportivo Riestra+0.01on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gimnasia L.P. ↓

Deportivo Riestra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Gimnasia L.P. or draw
72%
Gimnasia L.P. or Deportivo Riestra
70%
Draw or Deportivo Riestra
58%

Winning margin

Gimnasia L.P. wins by 2+
18%
Deportivo Riestra wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Gimnasia L.P. 1+ goals
69%
Gimnasia L.P. 2+ goals
32%
Gimnasia L.P. 3+ goals
11%
Deportivo Riestra 1+ goals
59%
Deportivo Riestra 2+ goals
23%
Deportivo Riestra 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Gimnasia L.P. (draw refunded)
60%
Deportivo Riestra (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gimnasia L.P. at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.11 · 23 matches

Deportivo Riestra away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.25 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gimnasia L.P. attack 1.07 + Deportivo Riestra defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.16

Deportivo Riestra attack 0.68 + Gimnasia L.P. defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Gimnasia L.P. scores more
42%
level
30%
Deportivo Riestra scores more
28%

Gimnasia L.P. at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Gimnasia L.P. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
I. ArceDeportivo RiestraDeportivo Riestra · G
7.9

Match Events

12'
Brian Sánchez
38'
Martín Fernández
58'
T. Villoldo← J. Goya
58'
A. Alonso← N. Benegas
66'
J. Goitía← B. Sánchez
76'
Leonardo Morales
81'
S. Primante← N. Garayalde
81'
P. De Blasis← D. Zalazar
89'
A. Díaz← J. Herrera
90+1'
Pedro Ramírez

Possession

66%Gimnasia

Shots

16Gimnasia

Pass accuracy

57%Gimnasia

Statistics

GimnasiaDeportivo
Overview
66%Possession34%
16Total Shots7
0.72Expected Goals (xG)0.50
4Corners1
6Fouls11
Shots
16Total Shots7
4On Target3
4Off Target3
8Blocked1
12Inside Box5
4Outside Box2
Passing
66%Possession34%
535Total Passes288
399Accurate Passes160
75%Pass Accuracy56%
Goalkeeping
3Saves4
0.96Goals Prevented0.96
Discipline
6Fouls11
2Yellow Cards2
4Offsides0

Match Recap: Gimnasia L.P. vs Deportivo Riestra

Gimnasia L.P. and Deportivo Riestra drew 0-0 in Liga Profesional Argentina on September 20, 2024.

Gimnasia L.P. controlled possession (66%) and registered 16 shots to 7.

The match was played at Estadio Juan Carmelo Zerillo in La Plata, Provincia de Buenos Aires.