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Gimnasia L.P. vs Boca Juniors — Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

Gimnasia L.P.
Gimnasia L.P.
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Boca Juniors
Boca Juniors
R. Castillo 90'
D. Benedetto 76'
C. Medina 74'
M. Merentiel 39'
7/16/2023Liga Profesional ArgentinaLiga Profesional Argentina · Round 25Estadio Juan Carmelo Zerillo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 14+ matches

Gimnasia L.P.38%
×Draw30%
Boca Juniors33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gimnasia L.P.
1.11
Boca Juniors
1.01

Gimnasia L.P. creates 10% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 14 away

creates per match

Gimnasia L.P.
1.07
Boca Juniors
0.91

allows per match

Gimnasia L.P.
1.11
Boca Juniors
1.15

finishing

Gimnasia L.P.-0.24scores less
Boca Juniors+0.30scores more

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gimnasia L.P. ↓

Boca Juniors →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Gimnasia L.P. or draw
67%
Gimnasia L.P. or Boca Juniors
70%
Draw or Boca Juniors
62%

Winning margin

Gimnasia L.P. wins by 2+
15%
Boca Juniors wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Gimnasia L.P. 1+ goals
67%
Gimnasia L.P. 2+ goals
30%
Gimnasia L.P. 3+ goals
10%
Boca Juniors 1+ goals
64%
Boca Juniors 2+ goals
27%
Boca Juniors 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Gimnasia L.P. (draw refunded)
54%
Boca Juniors (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gimnasia L.P. at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.11 · 23 matches

Boca Juniors away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.15 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gimnasia L.P. attack 1.07 + Boca Juniors defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.11

Boca Juniors attack 0.91 + Gimnasia L.P. defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Gimnasia L.P. scores more
38%
level
30%
Boca Juniors scores more
33%

Gimnasia L.P. at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Gimnasia L.P. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8
G. FernándezBoca JuniorsBoca Juniors · M
8.0

Match Events

-5'
Erik Ramírez
20'
Matías Bazzi
24'
Frank Fabra
28'
Pol Fernández
39'
M. Merentiel↳ G. Fernández
56'
Miguel MerentielGoal cancelled
60'
L. Mamut← A. Bolívar
60'
A. Lescano← F. Soldano
66'
I. Mammini← B. Barros Schelotto
73'
N. Briasco← M. Merentiel
73'
L. Advíncula← E. Fernández
73'
D. Benedetto← L. Vázquez
74'
C. Medina↳ A. Varela
76'
D. Benedetto↳ M. Weigandt
79'
B. Valdez← F. Fabra
79'
D. González← G. Fernández
83'
B. Palazzo← L. Morales
83'
R. Castillo← E. Ramírez
85'
Alan Lescano
88'
Darío Benedetto
90+6'
Alan Varela
90'
R. Castillo

Possession

37%Gimnasia

Shots

19Gimnasia

Pass accuracy

46%Gimnasia

Statistics

GimnasiaBoca
Overview
37%Possession63%
19Total Shots9
11Corners4
18Fouls12
Shots
19Total Shots9
6On Target5
10Off Target2
3Blocked2
11Inside Box7
8Outside Box2
Passing
37%Possession63%
243Total Passes440
162Accurate Passes352
67%Pass Accuracy80%
Goalkeeping
2Saves5
Discipline
18Fouls12
3Yellow Cards4
0Offsides2

Match Recap: Gimnasia L.P. vs Boca Juniors

Boca Juniors beat Gimnasia L.P. 3-1 in Liga Profesional Argentina on July 16, 2023.

Goals: M. Merentiel (39'), C. Medina (74'), D. Benedetto (76'), R. Castillo (90').

Boca Juniors controlled possession (63%) and registered 9 shots to 19.

The match was played at Estadio Juan Carmelo Zerillo in La Plata, Provincia de Buenos Aires.