Boca Juniors 0–1 Gimnasia L.P.: Result & Stats

Boca Juniors

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Gimnasia L.P.

L. Rodríguez 17' (pen)

10/31/2021

Liga Profesional Argentina · 2nd Phase - 19Estadio Alberto José Armando

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 18+ matches

Boca Juniors47%

×Draw28%

Gimnasia L.P.25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Boca JuniorsExpected goals in this matchGimnasia L.P.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

0.91

Boca Juniors

1.37

Gimnasia L.P.

0.91

Boca Juniors creates 51% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 26 away

1.52

creates per match

0.90

0.92

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Boca Juniors

1.52

Gimnasia L.P.

0.90

allows per match

Boca Juniors

0.92

Gimnasia L.P.

1.22

-0.08on par

finishing

-0.09on par

finishing

Boca Juniors-0.08on par

Gimnasia L.P.-0.09on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Boca Juniors ↓

Gimnasia L.P. →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Boca Juniors or draw

75%

Boca Juniors or Gimnasia L.P.

72%

Draw or Gimnasia L.P.

53%

Winning margin

Boca Juniors wins by 2+

23%

Gimnasia L.P. wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Boca Juniors 1+ goals

75%

Boca Juniors 2+ goals

40%

Boca Juniors 3+ goals

16%

Gimnasia L.P. 1+ goals

60%

Gimnasia L.P. 2+ goals

23%

Gimnasia L.P. 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Boca Juniors (draw refunded)

66%

Gimnasia L.P. (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Boca Juniors at home — creates 1.52, concedes 0.92 · 18 matches

Gimnasia L.P. away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.22 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Boca Juniors attack 1.52 + Gimnasia L.P. defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.37

Gimnasia L.P. attack 0.90 + Boca Juniors defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Boca Juniors scores more

47%

level

28%

Gimnasia L.P. scores more

25%

Boca Juniors at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Boca Juniors will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

R. Rey

Gimnasia L.P. · G

7.9

Match Events

17'

L. RodríguezPenalty

38'

G. Fratta← M. Coronel

45+7'

46'

64'

64'

66'

E. Cardona← E. Almendra

66'

E. Zeballos← N. Briasco

67'

Brahian Alemán

67'

Brahian Alemán

71'

Leonardo Morales

73'

H. Mancilla← R. Holgado

76'

F. Torres← M. Insaurralde

76'

L. Licht← F. Gerometta

78'

79'

84'

90+2'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BocaGimnasia

Overview

77%Possession23%

21Total Shots6

14Corners0

14Fouls12

Shots

21Total Shots6

7On Target2

9Off Target4

5Blocked0

13Inside Box2

8Outside Box4

Passing

77%Possession23%

634Total Passes203

548Accurate Passes109

86%Pass Accuracy54%

Goalkeeping

1Saves6

Discipline

14Fouls12

2Yellow Cards5

0Red Cards1

3Offsides1