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Gimnasia L.P. vs Boca Juniors — Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

Gimnasia L.P.
Gimnasia L.P.
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Boca Juniors
Boca Juniors
L. Morales 57'
L. Langoni 66'
F. Fabra 38'
10/20/2022Liga Profesional ArgentinaLiga Profesional Argentina · 2nd Phase - 23Estadio Juan Carmelo Zerillo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 14+ matches

Gimnasia L.P.38%
×Draw30%
Boca Juniors33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gimnasia L.P.
1.11
Boca Juniors
1.01

Gimnasia L.P. creates 10% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 14 away

creates per match

Gimnasia L.P.
1.07
Boca Juniors
0.91

allows per match

Gimnasia L.P.
1.11
Boca Juniors
1.15

finishing

Gimnasia L.P.-0.24scores less
Boca Juniors+0.30scores more

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gimnasia L.P. ↓

Boca Juniors →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Gimnasia L.P. or draw
67%
Gimnasia L.P. or Boca Juniors
70%
Draw or Boca Juniors
62%

Winning margin

Gimnasia L.P. wins by 2+
15%
Boca Juniors wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Gimnasia L.P. 1+ goals
67%
Gimnasia L.P. 2+ goals
30%
Gimnasia L.P. 3+ goals
10%
Boca Juniors 1+ goals
64%
Boca Juniors 2+ goals
27%
Boca Juniors 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Gimnasia L.P. (draw refunded)
54%
Boca Juniors (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gimnasia L.P. at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.11 · 23 matches

Boca Juniors away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.15 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gimnasia L.P. attack 1.07 + Boca Juniors defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.11

Boca Juniors attack 0.91 + Gimnasia L.P. defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Gimnasia L.P. scores more
38%
level
30%
Boca Juniors scores more
33%

Gimnasia L.P. at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Gimnasia L.P. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18
F. FabraBoca JuniorsBoca Juniors · D
7.7

Match Events

9'
M. Insaurralde← F. Soldano
9'
M. Melluso← N. Colazo
9'
G. Fernández← C. Medina
9'
N. Figal← G. Aranda
9'
J. Ramírez← M. Payero
20'
J. Morales← D. Benedetto
38'
F. Fabra↳ Ó. Romero
46'
F. Soldano← B. Alemán
56'
A. Sández← F. Fabra
56'
S. Villa← J. Ramírez
57'
L. Morales↳ E. Ramírez
66'
A. Steimbach← M. Insaurralde
66'
L. Langoni
71'
Oscar Piris
71'
Carlos Zambrano
73'
F. Roncaglia← L. Langoni
74'
C. Medina← G. Fernández
79'
L. Contín← B. Domínguez
84'
Ramón Sosa
85'
Óscar Romero

Possession

52%Gimnasia

Shots

12Gimnasia

Pass accuracy

52%Gimnasia

Statistics

GimnasiaBoca
Overview
52%Possession48%
12Total Shots8
2Corners1
15Fouls12
Shots
12Total Shots8
2On Target7
3Off Target1
7Blocked0
5Inside Box4
7Outside Box4
Passing
52%Possession48%
316Total Passes315
238Accurate Passes222
75%Pass Accuracy70%
Goalkeeping
5Saves1
Discipline
15Fouls12
2Yellow Cards2
3Offsides1

Liga Profesional Argentina: Gimnasia L.P. 1–2 Boca Juniors

Boca Juniors beat Gimnasia L.P. 2-1 in Liga Profesional Argentina on October 20, 2022.

Goals: F. Fabra (38'), L. Morales (57'), L. Langoni (66').

Gimnasia L.P. controlled possession (52%) and registered 12 shots to 8.

The match was played at Estadio Juan Carmelo Zerillo in La Plata, Provincia de Buenos Aires.