Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Boca Juniors vs Gimnasia L.P. — Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

Boca Juniors
Boca Juniors
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Gimnasia L.P.
Gimnasia L.P.
M. Giménez 15'
12/2/2024Liga Profesional ArgentinaLiga Profesional Argentina · 2nd Phase - 25Estadio Alberto José Armando

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 18+ matches

Boca Juniors47%
×Draw28%
Gimnasia L.P.25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Boca Juniors
1.37
Gimnasia L.P.
0.91

Boca Juniors creates 51% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 26 away

creates per match

Boca Juniors
1.52
Gimnasia L.P.
0.90

allows per match

Boca Juniors
0.92
Gimnasia L.P.
1.22

finishing

Boca Juniors-0.08on par
Gimnasia L.P.-0.09on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Boca Juniors ↓

Gimnasia L.P. →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Boca Juniors or draw
75%
Boca Juniors or Gimnasia L.P.
72%
Draw or Gimnasia L.P.
53%

Winning margin

Boca Juniors wins by 2+
23%
Gimnasia L.P. wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Boca Juniors 1+ goals
75%
Boca Juniors 2+ goals
40%
Boca Juniors 3+ goals
16%
Gimnasia L.P. 1+ goals
60%
Gimnasia L.P. 2+ goals
23%
Gimnasia L.P. 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Boca Juniors (draw refunded)
66%
Gimnasia L.P. (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Boca Juniors at home — creates 1.52, concedes 0.92 · 18 matches

Gimnasia L.P. away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.22 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Boca Juniors attack 1.52 + Gimnasia L.P. defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.37

Gimnasia L.P. attack 0.90 + Boca Juniors defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Boca Juniors scores more
47%
level
28%
Gimnasia L.P. scores more
25%

Boca Juniors at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Boca Juniors will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9
M. GiménezBoca JuniorsBoca Juniors · F
8.2

Match Events

15'
M. Giménez
32'
N. Colazo
43'
L. Mamut
46'
M. Fernández← A. Max
61'
M. Delgado← T. Belmonte
61'
M. Panaro← E. Martínez
61'
V. Rodríguez← N. Colazo
61'
D. Zalazar← S. Primante
66'
D. Zalazar
71'
M. Fernandez
76'
L. Janson← K. Zenón
78'
M. Delgado
78'
J. Esquivel← L. Mamut
81'
M. Rojo
84'
B. Aguirre← E. Zeballos
84'
I. Miramón← M. Giménez
84'
F. Fabra← M. Saracchi

Possession

57%Boca

Shots

16Boca

Pass accuracy

51%Boca

Statistics

BocaGimnasia
Overview
57%Possession43%
16Total Shots4
1.93Expected Goals (xG)0.12
11Corners2
9Fouls18
Shots
16Total Shots4
4On Target3
8Off Target1
4Blocked0
10Inside Box1
6Outside Box3
Passing
57%Possession43%
413Total Passes317
326Accurate Passes241
79%Pass Accuracy76%
Goalkeeping
3Saves3
0.32Goals Prevented0.32
Discipline
9Fouls18
2Yellow Cards4
1Offsides1

Liga Profesional Argentina: Boca Juniors 1–0 Gimnasia L.P.

Boca Juniors beat Gimnasia L.P. 1-0 in Liga Profesional Argentina on December 2, 2024.

Goals: M. Giménez (15').

Boca Juniors controlled possession (57%) and registered 16 shots to 4.

The match was played at Estadio Alberto José Armando in Ciudad de Buenos Aires.