Georgia 2–0 FYR Macedonia: Result & Stats

Georgia

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

FYR Macedonia

K. Kvaratskhelia 64'

B. Miovski 35' (OG)

9/23/2022

UEFA Nations League · League C - 5Boris Paichadze Dinamo Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Georgia50%

×Draw27%

FYR Macedonia24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GeorgiaExpected goals in this matchFYR Macedonia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

0.91

Georgia

1.46

FYR Macedonia

0.91

Georgia creates 60% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 10 away

1.92

creates per match

1.20

0.62

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Georgia

1.92

FYR Macedonia

1.20

allows per match

Georgia

0.62

FYR Macedonia

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Georgia+0.00on par

FYR Macedonia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Georgia ↓

FYR Macedonia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Georgia or draw

76%

Georgia or FYR Macedonia

73%

Draw or FYR Macedonia

50%

Winning margin

Georgia wins by 2+

25%

FYR Macedonia wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Georgia 1+ goals

77%

Georgia 2+ goals

43%

Georgia 3+ goals

18%

FYR Macedonia 1+ goals

60%

FYR Macedonia 2+ goals

23%

FYR Macedonia 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Georgia (draw refunded)

68%

FYR Macedonia (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Georgia at home — creates 1.92, concedes 0.62 · 13 matches

FYR Macedonia away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.00 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Georgia attack 1.92 + FYR Macedonia defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.46

FYR Macedonia attack 1.20 + Georgia defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Georgia scores more

50%

level

27%

FYR Macedonia scores more

24%

Georgia at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Georgia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12

G. Mamardashvili

Georgia · G

8.7

Match Events

13'

Visar Musliu

29'

Davit Khocholava

35'

B. MiovskiOwn goal

64'

K. Kvaratskhelia↳ B. Zivzivadze

68'

A. Trajkovski← S. Spirovski

68'

T. Todoroski← S. Ashkovski

72'

I. Azarov← G. Tsitaishvili

72'

L. Lochoshvili← D. Khocholava

72'

N. Serafimov← D. Velkovski

73'

J. Atanasov← M. Ristovski

78'

G. Mikautadze← B. Zivzivadze

78'

A. Mekvabishvili← Z. Davitashvili

84'

A. Elezi← E. Bardhi

86'

V. Mamuchashvili← G. Aburjania

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GeorgiaFYR

Overview

35%Possession65%

8Total Shots19

4Corners9

14Fouls12

Shots

8Total Shots19

2On Target6

4Off Target9

2Blocked4

5Inside Box4

3Outside Box15

Passing

35%Possession65%

301Total Passes571

222Accurate Passes492

74%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

6Saves1

Discipline

14Fouls12

1Yellow Cards1

1Offsides1