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Georgia vs FYR Macedonia — Euro Championship 2024

Georgia
Georgia
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
FYR Macedonia
FYR Macedoniaadvanced
G. Pandev 56'
11/12/2020Euro ChampionshipEuro Championship · Qualifying Play-offs Path D - FinalBoris Paichadze Dinamo Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Georgia49%
×Draw30%
FYR Macedonia21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Georgia
1.23
FYR Macedonia
0.68

Georgia creates 81% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 7 away

creates per match

Georgia
0.88
FYR Macedonia
0.86

allows per match

Georgia
0.50
FYR Macedonia
1.57

finishing

Georgia+0.00on par
FYR Macedonia+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Georgia ↓

FYR Macedonia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–110%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Georgia or draw
79%
Georgia or FYR Macedonia
70%
Draw or FYR Macedonia
51%

Winning margin

Georgia wins by 2+
22%
FYR Macedonia wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Georgia 1+ goals
71%
Georgia 2+ goals
35%
Georgia 3+ goals
13%
FYR Macedonia 1+ goals
49%
FYR Macedonia 2+ goals
15%
FYR Macedonia 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Georgia (draw refunded)
71%
FYR Macedonia (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Georgia at home — creates 0.88, concedes 0.50 · 8 matches

FYR Macedonia away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Georgia attack 0.88 + FYR Macedonia defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.23

FYR Macedonia attack 0.86 + Georgia defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Georgia scores more
49%
level
30%
FYR Macedonia scores more
21%

Georgia at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Georgia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16
Nika KvekveskiriGeorgiaGeorgia · M
7.7

Match Events

56'
G. Pandev↳ I. Nestorovski
62'
B. Nikolov
67'
A. Ademi← S. Spirovski
75'
G. Kashia
78'
T. Okriashvili
80'
V. Gvilia← G. Papunashvili
80'
N. Katcharava← E. Lobjanidze
82'
I. Nestorovski
84'
B. Nikolov← T. Kostadinov
88'
G. Kashia← J. Jigauri
89'
I. Nestorovski← I. Trickovski
89'
S. Ristovski← G. Zajkov
90+2'
L. Dvali← Z. Davitashvili
90+2'
Vako← D. Khocholava
90+3'
T. Kostadinov

Possession

55%Georgia

Shots

11Georgia

Pass accuracy

53%Georgia

Statistics

GeorgiaFYR
Overview
55%Possession45%
11Total Shots7
3Corners5
15Fouls14
Shots
11Total Shots7
2On Target2
5Off Target5
4Blocked0
3Inside Box5
8Outside Box2
Passing
55%Possession45%
429Total Passes342
324Accurate Passes230
76%Pass Accuracy67%
Goalkeeping
1Saves3
Discipline
15Fouls14
2Yellow Cards3
0Offsides1

Match Recap: Georgia vs FYR Macedonia

FYR Macedonia beat Georgia 1-0 in Euro Championship on November 12, 2020.

Goals: G. Pandev (56').

Georgia controlled possession (55%) and registered 11 shots to 7.

The match was played at Boris Paichadze Dinamo Arena in Tbilisi.