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Georgia vs FYR Macedonia — UEFA Nations League 2018

Georgia
Georgia
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
FYR Macedonia
FYR Macedonia
Tornike Okriashvili 13' (pen)
Stefan Ristovski 33'
9/8/2020UEFA Nations LeagueUEFA Nations League · League C - 2Boris Paichadze Dinamo Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Georgia50%
×Draw27%
FYR Macedonia24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Georgia
1.46
FYR Macedonia
0.91

Georgia creates 60% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 10 away

creates per match

Georgia
1.92
FYR Macedonia
1.20

allows per match

Georgia
0.62
FYR Macedonia
1.00

finishing

Georgia+0.00on par
FYR Macedonia+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Georgia ↓

FYR Macedonia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Georgia or draw
76%
Georgia or FYR Macedonia
73%
Draw or FYR Macedonia
50%

Winning margin

Georgia wins by 2+
25%
FYR Macedonia wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Georgia 1+ goals
77%
Georgia 2+ goals
43%
Georgia 3+ goals
18%
FYR Macedonia 1+ goals
60%
FYR Macedonia 2+ goals
23%
FYR Macedonia 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Georgia (draw refunded)
68%
FYR Macedonia (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Georgia at home — creates 1.92, concedes 0.62 · 13 matches

FYR Macedonia away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.00 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Georgia attack 1.92 + FYR Macedonia defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.46

FYR Macedonia attack 1.20 + Georgia defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Georgia scores more
50%
level
27%
FYR Macedonia scores more
24%

Georgia at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Georgia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7
Jaba KankavaGeorgiaGeorgia · M
7.9

Match Events

13'
Tornike OkriashviliPenalty
22'
Enis Bardhi
33'
Stefan Ristovski↳ Goran Pandev
45+1'
Giorgi Kvilitaia
58'
Visar Musliu
59'
Ilija Nestorovski← Aleksandar Trajkovski
59'
Boban Nikolov← Arijan Ademi
62'
Giorgi Chakvetadze← Giorgi Kvilitaia
64'
Visar Musliu
65'
Nika Kvekveskiri
65'
Boban Nikolov
74'
Nikoloz Mali
75'
Levan Shengelia← Nikoloz Mali
78'
Egzon Bejtulai← Goran Pandev
85'
Nika Kacharava← Nika Kvekveskiri

Possession

53%Georgia

Shots

13Georgia

Pass accuracy

51%Georgia

Statistics

GeorgiaFYR
Overview
53%Possession47%
13Total Shots2
5Corners2
16Fouls18
Shots
13Total Shots2
6On Target1
5Off Target0
2Blocked1
8Inside Box2
5Outside Box0
Passing
53%Possession47%
491Total Passes438
413Accurate Passes357
84%Pass Accuracy82%
Goalkeeping
0Saves5
Discipline
16Fouls18
3Yellow Cards3
0Red Cards1
1Offsides2

UEFA Nations League: Georgia 1–1 FYR Macedonia

Georgia and FYR Macedonia drew 1-1 in UEFA Nations League on September 8, 2020.

Goals: Tornike Okriashvili (13' pen), Stefan Ristovski (33').

Georgia controlled possession (53%) and registered 13 shots to 2.

The match was played at Boris Paichadze Dinamo Arena in Tbilisi.