Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

FYR Macedonia vs Georgia — UEFA Nations League 2018

FYR Macedonia
FYR Macedonia
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Georgia
Georgia
Ezgjan Alioski 90+3' (pen)
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia 74'
10/14/2020UEFA Nations LeagueUEFA Nations League · League C - 4Toše Proeski Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

FYR Macedonia39%
×Draw26%
Georgia35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FYR Macedonia
1.37
Georgia
1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 12 home / 11 away

creates per match

FYR Macedonia
1.92
Georgia
1.91

allows per match

FYR Macedonia
0.67
Georgia
0.82

finishing

FYR Macedonia+0.00on par
Georgia+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FYR Macedonia ↓

Georgia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

FYR Macedonia or draw
65%
FYR Macedonia or Georgia
74%
Draw or Georgia
61%

Winning margin

FYR Macedonia wins by 2+
18%
Georgia wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

FYR Macedonia 1+ goals
75%
FYR Macedonia 2+ goals
40%
FYR Macedonia 3+ goals
16%
Georgia 1+ goals
72%
Georgia 2+ goals
37%
Georgia 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

FYR Macedonia (draw refunded)
52%
Georgia (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FYR Macedonia at home — creates 1.92, concedes 0.67 · 12 matches

Georgia away — creates 1.91, concedes 0.82 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FYR Macedonia attack 1.92 + Georgia defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.37

Georgia attack 1.91 + FYR Macedonia defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

FYR Macedonia scores more
39%
level
26%
Georgia scores more
35%

FYR Macedonia at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "FYR Macedonia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16
Nika KvekveskiriGeorgiaGeorgia · M
7.7

Match Events

7'
Saba Lobjanidze← Otar Kiteishvili
51'
Giorgi Kvilitaia
66'
Murtaz Daushvili
67'
Stole Dimitrievski
70'
Nika Kacharava← Giorgi Kvilitaia
70'
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia← Murtaz Daushvili
71'
Damjan Shishkovski← Ilija Nestorovski
74'
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia↳ Nika Kvekveskiri
80'
Vlatko Stojanovski← Kire Ristevski
80'
Krste Velkoski← Ivan Tričkovski
85'
Ezgjan Alioski
88'
Ennur Totre← Boban Nikolov
89'
Darko Micevski← Tihomir Kostadinov
90+3'
Ezgjan AlioskiPenalty
90'
Mamuka Kobakhidze← Vako Qazaishvili
90'
Giorgi Navalovski← Lasha Dvali

Possession

51%FYR

Shots

9FYR

Pass accuracy

50%FYR

Statistics

FYRGeorgia
Overview
51%Possession49%
9Total Shots10
5Corners2
16Fouls22
Shots
9Total Shots10
2On Target4
1Off Target4
6Blocked2
4Inside Box6
5Outside Box4
Passing
51%Possession49%
486Total Passes459
400Accurate Passes379
82%Pass Accuracy83%
Goalkeeping
3Saves1
Discipline
16Fouls22
1Yellow Cards2
1Red Cards0
1Offsides2

UEFA Nations League: FYR Macedonia 1–1 Georgia

FYR Macedonia and Georgia drew 1-1 in UEFA Nations League on October 14, 2020.

Goals: Khvicha Kvaratskhelia (74'), Ezgjan Alioski (90+3' pen).

FYR Macedonia controlled possession (51%) and registered 9 shots to 10.

The match was played at Toše Proeski Arena in Skopje.